UFC 293 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland

by Tony Sartori |
Sep 08, 2023

UFC 293 gets underway this Saturday at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. This card features a ton of talent and is rounded out by an entertaining title fight.

In the main event, the Middleweight belt is on the line as Israel Adesanya looks to build upon his legacy against controversial challenger Sean Strickland.

Below, I will walk through the betting profile of each fighter and make my best bet for this championship bout.

UFC 293 Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of Circa Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Israel Adesanya (24-2 Overall / 13-2 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-W-W-L-W)

After enacting his revenge by knocking out Alex Pereira in their rematch, Adesanya looks to move past the rivalry. He hopes to continue to cement himself as not only one of the greatest middleweights of all time but one of the best pound-for-pound mixed martial artists. Before re-hashing his rivalry against Pereira from their Glory kickboxing days, Adesanya was untouchable in the 185-pound division.

Not only was he undefeated professionally in the weight class, but he was coasting to effortless unanimous decision victories over everyone in his way. In a similar manner to Georges St-Pierre when he entered the later stages of his career, Adesanyaâ€™s clinical striking and fight IQ are so superior that he can just dance around the outside, pick his shots without taking damage and rack up points in the eyes of the judges.

Yes, that means fewer knockout victories for Adesanya, but why would he care? Not taking damage keeps his longevity, which is far more important to him at this stage now that he is already one of the all-time greats.

Betting Profile: Sean Strickland (27-5 Overall / 14-5 UFC)

Last Five Fights (W-L-L-W-W)

There is a lot that can be said of Strickland, most of which would stir debates. But, the one unquestionable thing is his ability in the octagon.

Is he on Adesanyaâ€™s level? No, but he is a good fighter that has won eight of his past 10 scraps.

After some early success at Middleweight, Strickland vaulted up the rankings to take on big-name contenders like Pereira and Jared Cannonier. Falling short in each of those fights led to a change to light heavyweight and a unanimous decision victory over Nassourdine Imavov.

However, Strickland felt that the middleweight division was the place to be, and he was thrusted against up-and-comer Abus Magomedov in his return to the division. He did not disappoint. Strickland looked tremendous on the feet, earning a TKO victory in the second round and another chance to enter the title conversation.

Bottom Line

With that said, Strickland is also a beneficiary of circumstance. Adesanya was supposed to face Dricus Du Plessis for the title, but Du Plessis could not make the turnaround following his upset victory over Robert Whittaker in July.

And, since Adesanya has already disposed of Whittaker (2x), Cannonier and Vettori (2x), Strickland gets to jump the line to take on the champ as the No. 5 contender. Additionally â€“ like it or not â€“ Stricklandâ€™s controversial antics on the mic get attention and help sell fights. At the end of the day, this fight takes place under the umbrella of a business-first promotion.

But, looking strictly at how these fighters will perform in the octagon, I do not see a world where Strickland hangs with Adesanya outside of a puncherâ€™s chance. This fight will stay on the feet, and Adesanya is one of the most clinical, creative and intelligent strikers in the sportâ€™s history.

I expect Adesanya to return to how he handled business at 185 pounds before the two Pereira fights: stay around the outside, take his shots while remaining patient and coast to an easy unanimous decision victory.

Best Bet: Israel Adesanya via Decision (+150 via Circa)

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.

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