Navigate

UFC 293 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane (2023)

by |

We have an absolute banger of a card this weekend as the UFC heads down under to Australia. The main event features a Middleweight title fight between Israel Adesanya (C) and Sean Strickland (#5), while Tai Tuivasa takes on Alexander Volkov in the co-main. There’s another heavyweight thriller earlier on the main card as New Zealand native Justin Tafa takes on Austen Lane. Let’s dive deeper into this fight and lock in a best bet. 

UFC 293 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane

Betting Profile: Justin Tafa (6-3-0, 1 NC)

Last Five Fights (Nc/W/W/L/L)

Justin Tafa made the long trip from Queensland to Florida to take on Austen Lane in June. Unfortunately, the bout lasted just 29 seconds before Lane landed a nasty eye poke, which eventually led to the fight being ruled a no-contest. Tafa entered the Fight Night event on a two-fight win streak, collecting first-round knockouts over Harry Hunsucker and Parker Porter, more recently. Just a combined 2:59 of time was used to earn the two prior victories. 

It’s a pretty straightforward approach for Tafa when he steps into the octagon: he wants to put you to sleep. All three of his UFC victories have come via KO, with the third being another first-round knockout against Juan Adams in February 2020. The Kiwi comes into this event averaging 5.02 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.95. Tafa’s not very active in the takedown department (0.0 takedowns per 15 minutes), but he has defended 100 percent of opposing attempts. 

Betting Profile: Austen Lane (12-3-0, 1 NC)

Last Three Fights (Nc/W/L)

Lane will be making his third walk to the octagon on Saturday, and he comes in with a 1-1 record in the Dana White Contender Series and also has the above-mentioned no-contest on his resume. Similar to Tafa, the American is hunting for a knockout when he steps onto the canvas. 11 of his 12 professional wins have come via knockout, with the 12th actually being a submission victory. 

Statistically, it’s just a small three-fight sample size, but Lane is averaging 4.33 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 1.67. He’s averaging 0.0 takedowns per 15 minutes while defending 0 percent as well (0/1 on defense). 

Bottom Line

When these two brawlers fought back in June, the oddsmakers saw Tafa as a -190 favorite, while Lane came back at +160. This time around, DraftKings Sportsbook has the Auckland native listed at -205 on the moneyline while his opponent is +170. I think it’s safe to assume that Tafa fighting in his own hemisphere has moved the line in his favor. 

Despite the home-octagon advantage, I’m going to take a shot with Austen Lane to win this fight at +170. Even though we only have 29 seconds of tape to work with, Lane did a nice job keeping distance from the forward-pushing Tafa. If you haven’t seen Lane, he’s not your typical chubby heavyweight. He’s a former defensive end who stands at 6’ 6” with an 80” reach. Even if Tafa’s trying to narrow him into a corner and close the distance, I think Lane has the stamina and agility to break away. As I mentioned above, 11 of his 12 professional victories have come via knockout. So, clearly, he possesses the power in his right hand. The bottom line is that with two knockout artists stepping in here, I just can’t pass up the +170 payout. The reach, the height, and the athleticism all go toward Lane, while Tafa just has more experience in the UFC. I’ll take a shot with the underdog to get his hand raised!

Pick: Austen Lane Moneyline (+170 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

More UFC 293 Coverage:

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App