UFC 293 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Manel Kape vs. Felipe dos Santos
Felipe dos Santos is making his UFC debut on short notice vs. Manel Kape.
Kape is on a three-fight win streak and is the much more experienced fighter. Dos Santos fights out of the incredible Chute Boxe Diego Lima Gym. Dos Santos is undefeated with a record of 7-0 with two KOs/TKOs/, three submissions and two decisions.
This is an intriguing matchup from a betting standpoint. Let’s dive in!
Manel Kape vs. Felipe dos Santos: UFC 293 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Let’s look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter’s last three fights. This indicates a fighter’s form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let’s look at this compelling matchup!
Manel Kape (-395) vs Felipe dos Santos (+310)
Manel Kape
- Dist Acc Off: 50.9%
- Dist Att/Min: 9.37
- Dist Def: 56%
- KD%: 1.8% (4 KDs out of 220 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 3.87%
- Control % Def: 6.23%
As stated, dos Santos is making his UFC debut, so we cannot pull an advanced statistic profile for him. Meanwhile, Kape fights at a below-average pace for his weight class. He does possess power that has carried through his fights.
Kape has been adamant about wanting to face Kai Kara-France after this fight. This gives me pause because you cannot look past anybody in the fight game. Dos Santos was scheduled to fight on the Contender Series but is filling in on short notice.
The line is simply too wide for a short-notice fighter coming out of Chute Boxe Diego Lima Gym. Also, I think Kape is far too focused on what comes after this fight.
Bet: Felipe Dos Santos (+310)
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!