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UFC 293 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tai Tuivasa vs. Alexander Volkov

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The co-main event of the evening is between two mainstays of the heavyweight division: Tai Tuivasa and Alexander Volkov.

Tuivasa comes off two fierce fights against Ciryl Gane and Sergei Pavlovich, where he was finished in both contests. Conversely, Volkov enters following two first-round KO/TKO victories over Alexandr Romanov and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. This fight arguably could be the fight of the night.

Let’s dive into both fighters’ advanced profiles!

Tai Tuivasa vs. Alexander Volkov: UFC 293 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Let’s look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.

Glossary

  • Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
  • Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
  • Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
  • Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
  • Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
  • KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
  • Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
  • Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
  • Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter’s last three fights. This indicates a fighter’s form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let’s look at this compelling matchup!

Alexander Volkov (-245) vs. Tai Tuivasa (+200)

Alexander Volkov

  • Dist Acc Off: 52.1%
  • Dist Att/Min: 10.42
  • Dist Def: 54%
  • KD%: .3% (1 KD out of 289 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 5.1%
  • Control % Def: 8.1%

Tai Tuivasa 

  • Dist Acc Off: 41.9%
  • Dist Att/Min: 7.52
  • Dist Def: 41%
  • KD%: 7.4% (6 KDs out of 81 distances strikes)
  • Control % Off: 17.8%
  • Control % Def: 7.3%

I cannot understate how excited I am for this fight. Two things boldly stand out: Tai Tuivasa has a horrendous distance defense of 41% and a sublime KD% of 7.4%. I cannot see this fight going any way other than a KO/TKO by either fighter. Both are going in infinitely different directions.

I cannot get past Tuivasa’s insane KD%. To put it in perspective, the average UFC KD% is 3%. Volkov will try to implement a similar gameplan that Gane did, but he is not as skilled as Gane.

The famous quote from Tuivasa is relevant in this fight: “If I dink him, I sink him.” Tuivasa will land flush, marking the beginning of the end.

Tuivasa will get his hand raised, and there is considerable value in an early finish.

Bet: Tai Tuivasa (+200) + KO/TKO in Round 1 (+500)

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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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