UFC 293 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tyson Pedro vs. Anton Turkalj (2023)
We have an absolute banger of a card this weekend as the UFC heads down under to Australia. The main event features a Middleweight title fight between Israel Adesanya (C) and Sean Strickland (#5), while Tai Tuivasa (#6) takes on Alexander Volkov (#7) in the co-main. The main card opens up with a sneakily good fight in the Lightweight division as Tyson Pedro takes on Anton Turkalj. Let’s dive into each fighter’s current form and lock in a best bet!
UFC 293 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tyson Pedro vs. Anton Turkalj
Betting Profile: Tyson Pedro (9-4-0)
Last Five Fights (L/W/W/L/L)
Tyson Pedro has now fought three times since his near-four-year layoff from 2018 to 2022. The brawler is 2-1 over the stretch, collecting knockout wins over Ike Villanueva and Harry Hunsucker more recently. The Australian’s two-fight win streak came to an end in February when he lost a unanimous decision to Modestas Bukauskas. Pedro actually out-struck his opponent 45-44 and landed a pair of takedowns, but it wasn’t enough for the judges to give him a third straight win.
Statistically, Pedro is landing a modest 2.96 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.49. In terms of wrestling, he’s landing 0.97 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 36 percent clip. Pedro’s defending 52 percent of opposing attempts. It’s worth noting that the 31-year-old is a black belt in both Japanese and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, as well as boasting the same rank in Kempo.
Betting Profile: Anton Turkalj (8-2-0)
Last Three Fights (L/L/W)
Anton Turkalj hasn’t had great fortune since getting awarded a contract in the Dana White Contender Series in July of 2022. He dropped his first two fights on the big stage, getting submitted via rear naked choke to Jailton Almeida and dropping a unanimous decision to Vito Petrino in the follow-up fight.
What stands out the most is Turkalj’s lack of takedown defense. He was taken down a combined 10 times in his first two bouts in the UFC. That equates to a takedown defense rate of just 16 percent. Meanwhile, his DWCS victory over Acacio Dos Santos featured 11 successful takedowns, which gives him an inflated average of 6.97 takedowns per 15 minutes. As for the striking, the Swedish native is landing 1.60 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.18.
Bottom Line
Interestingly, the oddsmakers see this fight as a coin flip. Both brawlers enter this event at -110 to get their hands raised. Well, I’m going to fade Turkalj as he makes the trip to Pedro’s home country. Give me Tyson Pedro on the moneyline.
I cannot get over how poor Turkalj’s takedown defense has been since coming onto the UFC scene. He has been taken down 10 times over his two recent fights and owns a takedown defense rate of just 16 percent. Meanwhile, Pedro is an accomplished fighter in terms of his grappling, boasting black belts in both Brazilian and Japanese Jiu-Jitsu. He should have a field day if this one becomes super close quarters. Considering the home-octagon advantage and the edge in wrestling, I have to ride with Pedro here at -110.
Pick: Tyson Pedro Moneyline (-110 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
More UFC 293 Coverage:
- Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland
- Tai Tuivasa vs. Alexander Volkov
- Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane
- Manel Kape vs. Felipe dos Santos
- Prelims Undercard Odds, Picks & Predictions
- UFC 293 Adesanya vs. Strickland Parlay Picks
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