UFC 294 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker
The UFC packs its bags and heads to the Middle East this weekend, where UFC 294 is set to take place from Yas Island in the U.A.E. There have been a few dropouts from the original card, but fighters have stepped up, and I’m confident in saying that we’re in for a certified banger on Saturday. Leading up to the main event, we have a Light Heavyweight brawl between Magomed Ankalaev (#2) and Johnny Walker (#7). Below is my breakdown of each fighter and I’ll round out the article with how I’m betting this main card thriller.
UFC 294 Odds, Picks & Predictions
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Betting Profile: Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1)
- Last Five Fights (DWWWW)
It has been about 10 months since Magomed Ankalaev made the walk for his title fight against Jan Blachowicz, a bout that ended in a draw. The results certainly raised some eyebrows as it looked like the Dagestani fighter was going to bring another belt back to the region. However, the judges had other ideas. Ankalaev out-struck Blachowicz 78-55 and won the takedown battle 2-0. The draw ultimately snapped a nine-fight win streak for the Russian, whose only blemish in the promotion came from a Paul Craig Triangle Choke in his UFC debut (March 2018).
Stylistically, Ankalaev is very much a striker. He’s averaging 3.55 significant strikes per minute (52% accuracy) while absorbing just 2.15 strikes. However, he’s also a competent wrestler who averages 0.99 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 29% success rate. Ankalaev is defending 86% of opposing takedown attempts.
Betting Profile: Johnny Walker (21-7-0)
- Last Five Fights (WWWLL)
After Johnny Walker dropped four fights in five opportunities, he’s back to climbing the UFC rankings. The Brazilian has rattled off three straight wins, beating Ion Cutelaba (SUB – Rear Naked Choke), Paul Craig (KO – Punches), and Anthony Smith (U-DEC), most recently. Walker pounded Lionheart last time out, out-striking him 92-38 over 15 minutes of action. His two prior victories took just 19 combined significant strikes before he was able to put his opponents away in the first round.
Walker comes into this fight landing an average of 3.85 significant strikes per minute (56% accuracy). He’s absorbing just 2.58 significant strikes per minute while also defending 60% of takedowns. The 31-year-old isn’t very active in the grappling department as he’s securing just 0.51 takedowns per 15 minutes. It is worth noting that Walker is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Bottom Line
Magomed Ankalaev enters this fight as a sizable favorite over at DraftKings Sportsbook, sitting at -360 on the moneyline. Johnny Walker comes back at +285 to pull off the upset and get his hand raised.
While Walker is trending in the right direction, I don’t think he’s ready for a fighter of Ankalaev’s caliber. Despite being the same age, it simply looks like the Russian is a much more polished competitor at this stage of his career. The fact that he’s more technical leads me to believe he’ll have the discipline to not get sucked into any of Walker’s knockout attempts.
On the flip side, Ankalaev possesses knockout power, but he doesn’t demonstrate it as often as you’d like to see. He has been much more conservative with his approach as he continues to take on more talented fighters, which makes sense. That checks out on his fight log as four of his last five fights have gone the distance. This bout is scheduled for just 15 minutes. I see both fighters making it to the final horn, but I think Ankalaev will ultimately take care of business. Let’s take a shot with the +225 payout that comes with Ankalaev by decision.
Pick: Magomed Ankalaev To Win By Decision (+225 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
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