UFC 294 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Said Nurmagomedov vs. Muin Gafurov
Said Nurmagomedov faces off against Muin Gafurov in a bantamweight showdown. Muin is 0-2 in the UFC and is looking to secure his first victory. Said is coming off a disappointing performance against Johnathan Martinez where he was controlled in the clinch and lost a unanimous decision. The line is closer than you would have thought for a fighter who is making his 9th UFC walk to the octagon versus a fighter only making their third UFC appearance. Let’s dive into this intriguing matchup!!!
Said Nurmagomedov vs. Muin Gafurov: UFC 294 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!
Said Nurmagomedov (-218) vs. Muin Gafurov (+180)
Said Nurmagomedov
- Dist Acc Off: 42%
- Dist Att/Min: 10.03
- Dist Def: 61%
- KD%: .5% (1 KD out of 189 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 10.3%
- Control % Def: 28.9%
Muin Gafurov
- Dist Acc Off: 35.7%
- Dist Att/Min: 13.37
- Dist Def: 53%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 64 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 31.7%
- Control % Def: 23.6%
Said is leaps and bounds a better striker than Gafurov. He is also more accurate and has a considerably better distance defense. Muin does fight at a considerably faster pace which could aid him in trying to get this fight to the clinch or the ground. Said’s defensive control % is extremely concerning and showed up as a real weakness in his last fight. Gafurov has a real path to victory here and can genuinely pull this upset. If he gets into a control position he could easily grind out a decision victory.
Bet: Muin Gafurov (+180)
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!