UFC 295 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets
UFC 295 is an incredibly balanced and intriguing card. We have two title fights that feature four fighters in their prime. We have an underrated undercard that features up-and-coming prospects and proven veterans. As cliche as it sounds, this could compete for card of the year. I will pinpoint my favorite longshot of the card, let’s dive in!!!
Let’s look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.
UFC 295 Odds, Picks & Predictions
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter’s last three fights. This indicates a fighter’s form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let’s look at this compelling matchup!
I will target the matchup of Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint-Denis. Most of this card is close to a pick em but this matchup presents us with tremendous value in the form of ever-dangerous Matt Frevola. Posted below are both fighters’ advanced statistical profiles from a previous article.
Benoit Saint-Denis
- Dist Acc Off: 50.1%
- Dist Att/Min: 14.91
- Dist Def: 50%
- KD%: 1.1% (3 KDs out of 145 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 46.9%
- Control % Def: 6.6%
Matt Frevola
- Dist Acc Off: 31.6%
- Dist Att/Min: 12.05
- Dist Def: 61%
- KD%: 12.2% (6 KDs out of 49 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 5.2%
- Control % Def: 34.2%
There are two things that stand out immediately to me. Firstly, Frevola has an insane KD% of 12.2%. Even though this is on a small sample size of distance strikes, six knockdowns are nothing to trifle with. Frevola has recorded a knockdown in three fights in a row. Secondly, Saint-Denis has a concerning distance defense of 50%. The UFC distance defense average is 63%. If Saint-Denis cannot get this fight to the ground, Frevola can make a short order of him.
Bet: Frevola 1st-round KO/TKO +750
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!