UFC 295 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall
Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall is arguably a better matchup than Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic. We have two premier Heavyweights in their prime facing off, which rarely happens. Sergei Pavlovich is a wrecking ball who has yet to see a second round in his UFC career. Tom Aspinall moves with the fluidity of a middleweight and not only possesses power in his hands but has a repertoire of submissions that few heavyweights in the history of MMA can lay claim to. The fact this is the co-main event lets you know how incredible this card is. Let’s dive in!
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall: UFC 295 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!
Tom Aspinall (-118) vs Sergei Pavlovich (-102)
Tom Aspinall
- Dist Acc Off: 60.6%
- Dist Att/Min: 9.78
- Dist Def: 61%
- KD%: 3.7% (2 KDs out of 54 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 31.7%
- Control % Def: 0%
Sergei Pavlovich
- Dist Acc Off: 43.3%
- Dist Att/Min: 17.84
- Dist Def: 65%
- KD%: 7.3% (5 KDs out of 68 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 4.2%
- Control % Def: 0%
This is my favorite fight of the entire card. Aspinall legitimately moves like a middleweight on the feet. If you were to build a modern heavyweight prototype in a laboratory, it would look like Tom Aspinall. He has a clear advantage in offensive control but he actually would have to get the fight there, whereas all other opponents against Sergei have failed. What stands out the most with Sergei is he fights at an incredibly high pace for a heavyweight but his distance defense does not falter. Sergei’s 7.3 KD% is an incredible number even for a heavyweight. Sergei has never seen a second-round and Aspinall has only been to a second-round once. Sergei has a slight advantage in recent competition as he has fought Curtis Blades, Derrick Lewis, and Tai Tuivasa in the last 18 months. Pavlovich’s power is generational and I honestly do not think Aspinall will be able to take a clean shot.
Bet: Sergei Pavlovich (-118)
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!