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UFC 295 Prochazka vs. Periera: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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The UFC has two title fights lined up for Saturday night at Madison Square Garden.

Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall will fight for the interim heavyweight belt, with the victor fighting the winner of Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic. The main event is a light heavyweight title between Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira, who is making his second appearance in the division. The card has many exciting, talented fighters that make up the 13 fights.

Follow my Twitter here for more picks and predictions on the day of the fights.

UFC 295 Prochazka vs Pereira: Parlay Picks

2023 total: -4.94 units | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Leg 1: Mateusz Rebecki Money Line (–600)

Mateusz Rebecki is a wide favorite, and there is not much to say about him in this matchup. Roosevelt Roberts is stepping in on short notice for his second UFC stint. He most recently fought on The Ultimate Fighter but lost in the semifinals. In his first UFC stint that began in 2018, he went 4-3 with a no-contest.

Roberts has a seven-inch reach advantage over Rebecki but has never capitalized on it. He lands 3.14 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.12 significant strikes per minute. Rebecki lands 5.57 significant strikes per minute and only absorbs 2.18 significant strikes per minute. Rebecki's defense is superior and averages 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes.

It is an uphill climb for Roberts, but he can still be rewarded with another opportunity if he puts on a good show.

Leg 2: Jessica Andrade Money Line (+170)

Jessica Andrade has had a rough go of it in recent fights. She has dropped three in a row to Erin Blanchfield, Yan Xiaonan and Tatiana Suarez. There is no shame in losing to any of those ladies. She beat Lauren Murphy in January and is entering the octagon for the fifth time in the calendar year. She will face Mackenzie Dern, who is coming off a win over Angela Hill.

Dern stands three inches taller than Andrade but only has a one-inch reach advantage. She only averages 0.81 takedowns per 15 minutes in her UFC career but has been shooting at a higher rate in recent fights. She attempted 11 and nine takedowns in her last two, both five-round main events.

Andrade struggled against Suarez, but Dern does not have the wrestling ability of Suarez. Andrade should maintain her feet well enough to land volume on the feet. She lands 6.68 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.34 significant strikes per minute. Dern's standup has improved, but it is not technically sound enough to beat Andrade. Her predictable game plan could get her in trouble against a veteran like Andrade, who badly needs a win.

Leg 3: Alex Pereira Money Line (–122)

Alex Pereira has taken the MMA world by storm. He came into the UFC from kickboxing and immediately started knocking fighters out. Then he knocked out Israel Adesanya for the middleweight strap before being knocked out in the rematch. Adesanya is the only fighter technical enough to stand with Pereira, which will show in this fight.

Prochazka is a talented striker, but his defense is lacking. He lands 5.77 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 5.4. Pereira lands 5.11 and absorbs 3.70 significant strikes per minute. He was taken down three times on eight attempts by Jan Blachowicz, but he stayed safe and landed damage when standing. Prochazka likely will not initiate the wrestling unless he feels he has fallen behind.

It is only a matter of time until Pereira lands a counter when on their feet. He gets his reads quickly and is too technical for Prochazka to be one-dimensional. The one problem both men have is they get reckless and throw caution to the wind to land big punches. It is what got Pereira knocked out in the rematch with Adesanya. He should stay safer in this fight and look to counter against Prochazka's wild style.

Total Parlay Odds: +473

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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