UFC 296 Edwards vs. Covington: Prelims Undercard Odds, Picks & Predictions
The last UFC PPV of the year is completely stacked with intriguing matchups.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Josh Emmett has been moved off the prelims to the PPV card, leaving the prelims lacking that feature bout. No need to worry, though; there is still plenty of value to choose from.
Let’s dive in!
UFC 296 Prelims Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Let’s look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter’s last three fights. This indicates a fighter’s form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let’s look at this compelling matchup!
Irene Aldana (-185) vs. Karol Rosa (+154)
Irene Aldana
- Dist Acc Off: 33.7%
- Dist Att/Min: 8.14
- Dist Def: 52%
- KD%: 1.5% (2 KDs out of 133 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 4.5 %
- Control % Def: 27.9%
Karol Rosa
- Dist Acc Off: 52.5%
- Dist Att/Min: 11.09
- Dist Def: 53%
- KD%: .4% (1 KD out of 207 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 24.4%
- Control % Def: 29.3%
Irene Aldana is coming off a one-sided loss to the GOAT Amanda Nunes, where she was outstruck and out-grappled for 25 minutes. Aldana is known for her crisp boxing combinations and her distance management. The only issue is that there is much to be desired when you look at her advanced statistics profile. She has below-average accuracy paired with below-average pace and average distance defense. This type of inactivity, paired with inaccuracy, is usually how fighters lose a decent amount of decisions. Aldana has five UFC losses, all by decision.
Karol Rosa has a record of 6-2 in the UFC, and every single one of her fights has gone to decision. Rosa fights at an average pace with above-average accuracy. Her main weakness is defensive control, but Aldana has proven to have little interest in taking the fight to the ground. Also, Rosa has a respectable offensive control game that grants her another path to victory.
This line is a little wide, in my opinion, as if it should be closer to a pick’em.
Bet: Karol Rosa (+154) + Karol Rosa By Decision (+200)
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!