Bryce Mitchell vs. Josh Emmett has been promoted to the PPV card following Ian Garry vs. Vicente Luque being canceled due to Garry’s pneumonia.
This fight feels as if it should have been on the PPV card from the start. We have a clash of styles with Bryce Mitchell’s heavy grappling and Josh Emmett’s fierce power striking. Mitchell is expected to win this fight if he has any title aspirations.
Let’s dive into our top picks & predictions for UFC 296: Bryce Mitchell vs. Josh Emmett.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Josh Emmett: UFC 296 Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!
Bryce Mitchell (-225) vs. Josh Emmett (+185)
Bryce Mitchell
- Dist Acc Off: 34.9%
- Dist Att/Min: 8.14
- Dist Def: 66%
- KD%: 1.1% (1 KD out of 88 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 48.9%
- Control % Def: 17.3%
Josh Emmett
- Dist Acc Off: 32.1%
- Dist Att/Min: 10.91
- Dist Def: 60%
- KD%: .5% (1 KD out of 180 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 6.5%
- Control % Def: 6.7%
Bryce Mitchell has a clear and distinct game plan: Get the fight to the ground and use his superior wrestling/BJJ skills. He has succeeded in doing this in every fight except against Ilia Topuria. There is no shame in losing to Topuria, as he is fighting for a title in early 2024. Mitchell fights at a surprisingly slow pace and boasts elite distance defense because of this measured approach. As mentioned, if Mitchell aspires to contend for a title, these are the types of fights he is expected to win.
Josh Emmett will walk to the UFC octagon for the third time this year. Shockingly, this is arguably his easiest fight this year. He has fought Topuria and Yair Rodriguez, which were both wars. Do not let Emmett’s recent power numbers fool you; he still has substantial power at 39 years old. I feel as if this fight is a relief for Emmett. Mitchell does not have as many striking weapons and cannot overwhelm him as Yair did. Mitchell is also not as crisp and technical as Topuria.
Emmett has a wrestling base and should not be completely washed in the grappling department. Emmett has one-punch power, and if this fight plays out the distance, he will have a considerable advantage.
Bet: Josh Emmett +185
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!
