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UFC 296 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson (2023)

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A pair of belts are on the line this weekend as the UFC returns to the fight capital of the world, Las Vegas, Nevada. This card is insanely deep, and we have a Welterweight banger just before the co-main event as (#5) Shavkat Rakhmonov squares off against (#6) Stephen Thompson. Below I'll break down each fighter's current form, touch on the statistical data, and finish up with my analysis from a betting standpoint. Let's dive into this highly anticipated tilt!

UFC 296: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson Betting Guide

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Shavkat Rakhmonov (17-0-0)

Last Five Fights: (WWWWW)

29-year-old Shavkat Rakhmonov is on the warpath, racking up five victories to begin his UFC career. All five of those wins have come before the final horn, meaning that all 17 of his professional wins have been via either knockout (8) or submission (9). As Rakhmonov has climbed the rankings, he has taken on fiercer competition, most notably Neil Magny (SUB - Guillotine Choke) and Geoff Neal (SUB - Rear Naked Choke). More recently "Nomad" out-struck Neal 113 to 69 before landing a third-round submission.

Let's start with the grappling, where Rakhmonov is averaging 1.49 takedowns per 15 minutes (33% success rate). He has yet to be taken down in the UFC, so he's boasting a 100% takedown defense rate. The Kazakh brawler is also attempting 1.5 submissions per 15 minutes. As for his striking, Rakhmonov is averaging 4.45 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.61 strikes. In terms of his accolades, he is currently a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo. 

Betting Profile: Stephen Thompson (17-6-1)

Last Five Fights: (WLLWW)

Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson was able to get back in the win column last time out, snapping a two-fight skid courtesy of Gilbert Burns (U-DEC) and Belal Muhammad (U-DEC). His recent win was a KO effort against Kevin Holland in December 2022. Thompson amassed 163 strikes over four rounds while getting hit 119 times, and losing the takedown battle 2-0. The wrestling has been an issue recently as the American has conceded 10 takedowns over his last three fights while securing none. 

Wonderboy hasn't been much of a wrestler at this stage considering he lands just 0.27 takedowns per 15 minutes (41% success rate). He's defending 64% of opposing attempts while attempting 0.0 submissions per 15 minutes. As for his striking numbers, Thompson is landing 4.20 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.04 strikes. The 40-year-old is very accomplished in terms of his belts, owning a fifth-degree black belt in Kempo, a first-degree black belt in Jujutsu, a black belt in American Kickboxing, and a brown belt in BJJ. 

Bottom Line

The sportsbooks aren't giving Wonderboy much of a chance in this fight as he enters as a massive +470 moneyline underdog. Meanwhile, Shavkat Rakhmonov is -650 to get his hand raised, making him the biggest favorite on the entire card. 

I guess that's the respect you earn when you're a perfect 17-0-0, even when taking on a brawler of Stephen Thompson's caliber. As I mentioned in Rakhmonov's section above, all 17 of his professional wins have come inside the final horn (8 KO, 9 SUB). I'm not going to be the guy to step in front of that trend, which leaves us with two options. Will the Kazakh fighter win by knockout (+275) or submission (+120)? 

I'm going to take a shot with Rakhmonov's method of victory being knockout. Thompson's a tough guy to get out of the cage, only seeing one of his six professional losses end before going to the scorecards (KO by Anthony Pettis in 2019). However, he's running into a fighter that's on an astronomical trajectory. Considering Thompson has lost the takedown battle 10-0 in his last three fights, I think Rakhmonov will manage to get him to the ground relatively easily, where he can proceed to rain down blows. Let's take a shot with the +275 payout on Rakhmonov continuing his insane run. 

Bet: Shavkat Rakhmonov To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+275)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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