UFC 296 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett
Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett is a fight that seems like would only be happening in a video game, but alas we are here at the end of 2023 wondering how this is even a possibility.
Ferguson is arguably fighting for his UFC career as he has lost an astounding six fights in a row. In those fights, he has fought a murderer’s row of fighters: Justin Gaethje, Charles Oliveira, Beneil Dariush, Michael Chandler, Nate Diaz and Bobby Green. Pimblett is the most polarizing fighter in the UFC. His last fight against Jared Gordon left much to be desired as many feel he lost a decision.
Outside of the title fights, this is the most intriguing fight on the entire card. Let’s dive in.
Tony Ferguson vs Paddy Pimblett: UFC 296 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (knockdowns/distance strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!
Paddy Pimblett (-310) vs. Tony Ferguson (+250)
Paddy Pimblett
- Dist Acc Off: 43.2%
- Dist Att/Min: 18.58
- Dist Def: 46%
- KD%: .9% (1 KD out of 106 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 10.8%
- Control % Def: 46.6%
Tony Ferguson
- Dist Acc Off: 43.1%
- Dist Att/Min: 10.31
- Dist Def: 49%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 153 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: .5%
- Control % Def: 34.4%
Pimblett will fight for the first time in 2023, after fighting three times in 2022. As mentioned above, Paddy’s last fight was extremely controversial, the vast majority of media and fans believe he lost a decision to Jared Gordon.
Paddy’s biggest weakness via analysts is how he carries his chin high when exchanging in the pocket. This is evidenced by his horrendous 46% distance defense. Before diving into the advanced statistics, I surely would have thought he would have a better offensive control %. Two things that do not pair well together are a fighter who fights at a high pace and has a porous distance defense. Paddy’s 18.58 distance attempts per minute are significantly higher than the average lightweight. Tony Ferguson is fighting for his career in the UFC. He has been run through in his last six fights, but Paddy is not on the same level as any of his previous opponents. I would favor every single one of them against Paddy in a theoretical match.
Ferguson’s defensive control has been exposed but I am not sure Paddy has the technical grappling to get Ferguson down and control him. Paddy is not on the same level grappling-wise as Charles Oliveria or Beneil Dariush, nor is he as polished striking-wise as Bobby Green or Michael Chandler. This could be wishful thinking but I genuinely believe Tony Ferguson matches up well against Paddy Pimblett. Paddy is extremely hittable and reckless.
Bet: Tony Ferguson +250
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