UFC 297 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Arnold Allen vs. Movsar Evloev (2024)

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The UFC is back for another numbered event this weekend as UFC 297 gets underway on Saturday night from Toronto, Ontario. A pair of belts are on the line as Raquel Pennington (#2) squares off against Mayra Bueno Silva (#3) in the Women's Bantamweight division. The main event is a Middleweight championship fight, where Sean Strickland (C) will make his first title defense against Dricus Du Plessis (#2).

The main card opens up with a banger in the Featherweight division, as Arnold Allen (#4) takes on Movsar Evloev (#9). Below, I'll break down each fighter's recent form, touch on the betting odds and let you know where I'm placing my money for this bout. 

UFC 297: Arnold Allen vs. Movsar Evloev Betting Guide

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Arnold Allen (19-2-0)

Last Five Fights: (L-W-W-W-W)

The Arnold “Almighty” Allen is looking to rebound from his first UFC loss, which came at the hands of Max Holloway in a five-round unanimous decision in April last year. There's absolutely no shame in dropping a fight to the crafty Holloway, especially when you have a resumé like Allen's to fall back on. The Englishman earned a couple of key wins prior to the Holloway fight, knocking out both Dan Hooker and Calvin Kattar. Allen now has seven professional knockouts, along with four submissions and eight decisions. 

Statistically, the 29-year-old averages 3.34 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.86 strikes. His opposition lands just 39% of the strikes they throw. As for his grappling, Allen lands 1.12 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 50% clip while defending 76% of opposing attempts. He's currently a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. 

Betting Profile: Movsar Evloev (17-0-0)

Last Five Fights: (W-W-W-W-W)

Former M-1 Global champion Movsar Evloev has carried his success over to the UFC, where he's a perfect 7-0 in the octagon. All seven of those victories have gone to the judges' scorecards, which gives the Russian 10 decision wins in his professional career. He racked up three knockouts and four submissions before coming to the new promotion. Evloev has had a couple of notable wins in his last two tilts, taking care of Dan Ige (U-DEC) and Diego Lopes (U-DEC) more recently. 

Evloev is a high-energy fighter who lands 4.57 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.74 strikes. In terms of his wrestling, the 29-year-old is landing an insane 4.71 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 50% success rate. He's also fending off 71% of opposing takedown attempts. As for his accolades, Evloev boasts a Master of Sports in Greco-Roman wrestling. 

Bottom Line

Aside from the main event, this is my favorite fight on Saturday's UFC 297 card. DraftKings Sportsbook gives a decent edge to the undefeated Movsar Evloev, pricing him at -192 to remain unbeaten. Allen comes in at +160 to get back in the win column after dropping his last bout to Holloway. 

I think it's worth a shot on the underdog in the main card opener, so I’m playing Allen to get his hand raised. I feel he's the more well-rounded brawler, whereas Evloev relies on his wrestling. We haven't seen the Russian use too much besides his ground game. With that said, Allen hasn't been taken down since 2018, and he boasts a career takedown defense rate of 76%. 

I'm not saying Allen goes 100% against takedown attempts in this fight, but I believe there's a good chance that he can neutralize a majority of Evloev's grappling attempts. 

Furthermore, I believe the Englishman is the more battle-tested of the two fighters. Sure, Holloway dominated him in his last fight, but that happens to almost everyone. Before that bout, Allen demolished Kattar and Hooker, showing a powerful side to his striking game. If he can negate Evloev's wrestling, or at least limit it, he'll have a sizable edge on the feet. I'm taking a flier on Allen in this Featherweight clash. 

Bet: Arnold Allen Moneyline (+160)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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