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UFC 297 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Chris Curtis vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (2024)

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The UFC is back for another numbered event this weekend as UFC 297 gets underway on Saturday night from Toronto, Ontario. A pair of belts are on the line as Raquel Pennington (#2) squares off against Mayra Bueno Silva (#3) in the Women's Bantamweight division. The main event is a Middleweight championship fight, where Sean Strickland (C) will make his first title defense against Dricus Du Plessis (#2).

One of the big fights on the main card is a Middleweight tilt between Chris Curtis (#14) and Marc-Andre Barriault. Below, I'll break down each fighter's recent form and finish up by providing my best bet and analysis. Let's have a profitable night on the canvas!

UFC 297: Chris Curtis vs. Marc-Andre Barriault Betting Guide

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Chris Curtis (30-10-0, 1 NC)

Last Five Fights: (Nc-L-W-L-W)

Chris Curtis hasn't won a fight since December 2022, when he knocked out (Punches) Joaquin Buckley in the second round. Since the win at UFC 282, “The Action Man” dropped a fight to Kelvin Gastelum (U-DEC) before turning in a no-contest against Imavov. The no-contest with Imavov was stopped due to an accidental clash of heads, where Curtis was unable to continue. Perhaps it was for the better, as Imavov was outstriking him 57-26 while securing a trio of takedowns. 

The takedowns in the previous bout were surprising as they marked the first time Curtis has been taken down in the UFC. He boasts a 92% takedown defense rate. His offensive grappling game is non-existent, where he averages 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes. As for his striking, the American lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 6.30 strikes per minute. It's worth noting that Curtis is a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. 

Betting Profile: Marc-Andre Barriault (16-6-0, 1 NC)

Last Five Fights: (W-W-L-W-L)

Marc-Andre Barriault has been trending in the right direction recently, securing five wins in his last seven fights. That includes a current two-fight win streak, where the Canadian has taken care of Julian Marquez (KO - Punches) and Eryk Anders (U-DEC) more recently. Two of Barriault's five UFC wins have come by knockout, and he has a submission finish on his resumé as well. 

Statistically, The Quebec native is a high-volume fighter, dishing out 5.95 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.22 strikes. Like Curtis, his offensive wrestling approach isn't much, where he lands just 0.24 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 25% success rate. Defensively, he's defending 67% of opposing takedown attempts. Barriault is currently a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. 

Bottom Line

This main card tilt between Curtis and Barriault should be a good one on Saturday. “The Action Man” comes in as a -185 moneyline favorite, while Barriault is +154 to win the fight in front of his fellow countrymen. 

Neither of these brawlers is an aspiring wrestler, considering Curtis averages 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes while Barriault sits at 0.24 in the same metric. That leads me to believe we'll be in for a slugfest on the feet. 

Re-watching Curtis' recent fight against Nassourdine Imavov, he really struggled to close the distance against the taller fighter. That led to the American getting out-struck 57 to 26. This will be a similar set-up against Barriault, who has a three-inch height advantage over Curtis. 

Furthermore, in the Canadian's last fight against Eryck Anders, he saw 70% of strikes come from distance, compared to just 27% from the clinch. He should find success if he can dial up a similar game plan against the smaller Curtis. 

In addition, Curtis is just 1-2 (with a no-contest) in his last four fights, while Barriault has won five of his last seven fights. Being that this tilt will likely be vertical the whole time, it's basically a 50/50 from a "value perspective" with two fighters who possess knockout power. Barriault also may get a slight boost from fighting in his own country.

These factors, plus how I see this bout playing out stylistically, lead me to believe the underdog is live. I will take a shot with Barriault to get his hand raised on Saturday. 

Bet: Marc-Andre Barriault Moneyline (+154)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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