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UFC 297 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (2024)

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The women’s vacant Bantamweight championship will feature Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva.

Raquel Pennington fought for the Bantamweight belt five years ago in one of the most controversial fights against Amanda Nunes. She is now on a five-fight winning streak over the last three years and is looking to claim her first-ever UFC championship. Mayra Bueno Silva looks to extend her three-fight submission winning streak against a formidable foe.

These two fighters have a classic clash of styles and should provide us with an entertaining fight. This championship is going underlooked on the card entirely, but I feel it has the potential to be the fight of the night.

Let’s dive in!

Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva: UFC 297 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.

Glossary

  • Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
  • Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
  • Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
  • Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
  • Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
  • KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
  • Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
  • Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
  • Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!

Mayra Bueno Silva (-162) vs. Raquel Pennington (+136)

Mayra Bueno Silva 

  • Dist Acc Off: 54.6%
  • Dist Att/Min: 11.21
  • Dist Def: 67%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 118 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 28.5%
  • Control % Def: 10.5%

Raquel Pennington

  • Dist Acc Off: 49.7%
  • Dist Att/Min: 14.92
  • Dist Def: 64%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 209 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 19.6%
  • Control % Def: 27.3%

Bueno Silva is coming off three straight submission victories; the last one was changed to a no-contest because she failed her drug test. Regardless, she has an incredible six submission victories in the UFC. What is more impressive is the variety of submissions. She has three armbars, an anaconda choke, a kneebar and a guillotine choke. Bueno Silva has an incredible UFC record of 6-2-2.

In her two losses, she was completely outclassed on the feet and amassed a total of only 49 seconds of offensive control in 30 minutes of fight time. I’m not sure if Pennington will be able to neutralize Bueno Silva to this extent, but if she does, that would be an obvious path to victory.

Raquel Pennington will make her unprecedented 18th appearance in the UFC Octagon Saturday night. This will be more than likely her last opportunity to become champion. Pennington is on a five-fight winning streak where she has utterly dominated the majority of her opponents. Her last loss was over three years ago to Holly Holm, which we can see is not indicative of the fighter she is today. She fights at a considerably higher pace than Bueno Silva while still being defensively sound.

Pennington’s biggest weakness is her defensive control. It is not horrendous by any means, but 27.3% does give room for pause. Pennington has only been stopped once in her UFC career, and that was to Nunes. Realistically, that fight should have been stopped on the stool, but the malpractice by her corner was noted time and time again.

One thing that stands out to me is Bueno Silva is 0-2-1 in fights that reach a third round. This is concerning, considering the over/under for rounds is 4.5 (-130). So bookmakers are seeing this at least reaching the fourth round, if not soaring to a decision. I see Pennington weathering an early storm, dragging Bueno Silva to deep waters and drowning her with pressure and pace.

Bet: Raquel Pennington (+136)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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