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UFC 297 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sean Strickland vs. Dricus Du Plessis (2024)

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The UFC is back for another numbered event this weekend as UFC 297 gets underway on Saturday night from Toronto, Ontario. A pair of belts are on the line as Raquel Pennington (#2) squares off against Mayra Bueno Silva (#3) in the Women's Bantamweight division. The main event is a Middleweight championship fight, where Sean Strickland (C) will make his first title defense against Dricus Du Plessis (#2).

Below, I'll break down the main event, touch on the odds, and finish up by letting you know where I'm placing my money. Let's have a profitable night on the canvas!

UFC 297: Sean Strickland vs. Dricus Du Plessis Betting Guide

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Sean Strickland (28-5-0)

Last Five Fights: W-W-W-L-L

Sean Strickland will make his first title defense this weekend after pulling off a huge upset against Israel Adesanya in September. The victory is part of a current three-fight win streak, where the American has handled Nassourdine Imavov (U-DEC) and Abus Magomedov (KO - Punches) along the way. Strickland has landed at least 137 strikes in three of his last four fights, with the exception being the second-round knockout against Magomedov (81 strikes). 

The high volume isn't new, as this brawler averages 5.82 significant strikes per minute. He's absorbing 4.24 strikes per minute, with opponents landing only 37% of those blows. As for his wrestling, the champion is securing 0.92 takedowns per 15 minutes (64% success rate) while defending 84% of opposing takedown attempts. It's worth noting that Strickland is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

Betting Profile: Dricus Du Plessis (20-2-0)

Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-W

It has been a meteoric rise in the UFC for Dricus Du Plessis, who is a perfect 6-0 in the octagon. The South African has stepped up in competition lately, dominating his opponents. Du Plessis' three recent victories have come against Darren Till (SUB - Neck Crank), Derek Brunson (KO - Punches) and Robert Whittaker (KO - Punches), most recently. Finishes have become the standard for “Stillknocks,” who has now seen 19 of his 20 professional victories come before the final horn (9 KO, 10 SUB). 

Similar to Strickland, Du Plessis is constantly throwing strikes as well. He's averaging 6.95 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.79 strikes. The 30-year-old is a second-degree black belt in Kickboxing. As for his grappling, Du Plessis enters this tilt, landing 2.72 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 50% clip. He's defending 40% of opposing takedown attempts.

Bottom Line

This will be an absolute banger of a main event on Saturday night. The oddsmakers agree, listing the champion as a short -130 moneyline favorite. Du Plessis comes back at +110 to secure the Middleweight strap. 

I'll be backing Strickland to retain his championship belt on Saturday night. The longer this fight goes on, the more it favors the American. He has the defensive skill to make that happen, which should wear down the highly energetic Du Plessis as the fight continues. 

Strickland's strike defense is on point, as opponents land just 37% of their strikes. Not getting hit is a huge advantage, and the champ's statistics prove he can avoid opposing strikes. Furthermore, Du Plessis loves to take the fight to the canvas, averaging 2.72 takedowns per 15 minutes. Well, Strickland's fending off 84% of opposing takedown attempts. 

Ultimately, if Strickland can stretch this fight into the championship rounds, he'll easily be in the driver's seat to win the bout. Du Plessis hasn't fought into the fourth round in any of his six UFC fights, while Strickland has gone the full 25 minutes in five of his last seven fights. This should be an excellent fight, but I must ride with the more experienced fighter of Sean Strickland. 

Bet: Sean Strickland Moneyline (-130)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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