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UFC 298 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria (2024)

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Alexander Volkanovski and Ilia Topuria will face off Saturday night for the undisputed Featherweight Championship. This fight has been viewed as a possible changing of the guard, similar to the first Max Holloway-Volkanovski fight.

Volkanovski is coming off his first taste of real adversity in the UFC, while Topuria is on a trajectory towards stardom. Will the torch be handed over to the up-and-comer, or will the Featherweight GOAT continue his legacy at the top?

Let’s dive in!

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria: UFC 298 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.

Glossary

    • Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
    • Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
    • Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
    • Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
    • Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
    • KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
    • Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
    • Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
    • Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

    The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!

    Alexander Volkanovski (-125) vs. Ilia Topuria (+105)

    Alexander Volkanovski

    • Dist Acc Off: 53.8%
    • Dist Att/Min: 10.14
    • Dist Def: 58%
    • KD%: .5% (2 KDs out of 377 distance strikes)
    • Control % Off: 18.3%
    • Control % Def: 13.3%

    Ilia Topuria

    • Dist Acc Off: 41.7%
    • Dist Att/Min: 12.49
    • Dist Def: 69%
    • KD%: 2.1% (4 KDs out of 187 distance strikes)
    • Control % Off: 17.7%
    • Control % Def: 3.8%

    Volkanovski is arguably the greatest featherweight of all time. He has accomplished everything there is to accomplish, outside of winning a second belt in another division. His trilogy with Max Holloway was iconic, and his utter domination of every Featherweight opponent put in front of him has been an honor to watch.

    He is coming off his first roadblock in the UFC. Volkanovski’s first loss to Islam Makhachev was viewed really as a morale victory because he did the unthinkable and proved doubters wrong by losing a close decision. His second fight with Makhachev was a humbling experience. A first-round KO loss in that fashion on short notice will always have a lingering effect. I have an immense amount of respect for Volkanovski being that he shared with the world the depression he was going through leading into that second fight. I honestly cannot think of another fighter at his level of success who shared their mental health struggles with the public. In the past, combat sports have been viewed as two barbarians just inflicting violence on each other. Amid that thought, we forget that these fighters are human and have feelings. I am not sure if Volkanovski will be up to the task against the younger and faster opponent, but that is why fights are not fought on paper.

    Topuria is viewed as the heir apparent to the Featherweight division. He is 6-0 in his UFC career, with four finishes and two decisions. Topuria has formidable distance defense and is arguably the most technically sound boxer in the UFC. My main concern with Topuria is the overall competition that he has fought. Bryce Mitchell is an extremely gifted grappler but is a novice striker. Josh Emmett has the heaviest hands in the Featherweight division but is a brawler. No one that Topuria has fought will be as good as Volkanovski; otherwise, they would be the champion. None of the fighters on Topuria’s resumé are as well-rounded as Volkanovski. Volkanovski is a threat everywhere, and he is battle-tested.

    One thing that I find extremely intriguing is a stat via Luke Thomas:  The record of UFC fighters older than 35 years old between divisions 125 pounds to 170 pounds is 2-31. Those two victories belong to Tyron Woodley.

    MMA fighters do not age gradually. It usually happens overnight, and it is quite drastic. With that said, I think Volkanovski is the exception here. He dared to be great against Makhachev and was turned back. I do not think he will reign over the Featherweight division forever, but I do believe he will reset the clock this Saturday and keep the inevitable at bay, at least for the time being. Volkanovski to win is my bet.

    Bet: Alexander Volkanovski (-125)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

    Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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