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UFC 298 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov (2024)

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The UFC is back with another numbered event, this one being UFC 298. The promotion heads to Anaheim on Saturday, where Alexander Volkanovski (C) puts his Featherweight belt on the line against Ilia Topuria (#3). The main card opens up with a sneakily underrated Middleweight bout between Anthony Hernandez (#15) and Roman Kopylov. Let’s dive into the opener, touch on each fighter’s current form, and round out the article with a best bet. 

UFC 298: Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov Betting Guide

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Anthony Hernandez (11-2-0, 1 NC)

Last Five Fights: (W-W-W-W-L)

Anthony Hernandez has earned four straight victories, which has catapulted him into the top 15 in a stacked Middleweight division. Three of those four wins came before the judges’ scorecards, making it nine out of his 11 professional victories that have ended before the final horn. The four recent wins came against Rodolfo Vieira (SUB – Guillotine), Josh Fremd (U-DEC), Marc-Andre Barriault (SUB – Arm Triangle), and Edmen Shahbazyan (KO – Elbows), most recently. The American out-struck Shahbazyan 63-30 through 11:01 of fight time, while also winning the takedown battle 6-1. 

The wrestling masterclass isn’t anything new for the 30-year-old considering he averages 6.79 takedowns per 15 minutes. Hernandez is securing 57% of his takedown attempts while defending 63% of opposing attempts. As for his striking, he enters this tilt landing 4.33 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.36 strikes. It’s worth noting Hernandez is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. 

Betting Profile: Roman Kopylov (12-2-0) 

Last Five Fights: (W-W-W-W-L)

Similar to Hernandez, Roman Kopylov has been decimating his opposition recently. He’s also riding a four-fight win streak, with all four wins coming via knockout. That makes 11 knockouts in 12 professional victories. Josh Fremd was the latest of Kopylov’s victims, getting knocked out (Punch) in the second round back in September 2023. The other KOs came against Alessio Di Chirico (Punches), Punahele Soriano (Kick), and Claudio Ribeiro (Kick). 

Statistically, Kopylov is landing 4.72 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.11 strikes. As for his grappling, the Russian is averaging 0.47 successful takedowns per 15 minutes. He’s landing takedowns at a 50% clip while defending 92% of opposing attempts. The 32-year-old has a background in combat sambo, where he’s a five-time world champion. 

Bottom Line

This should be an absolute banger in the Middleweight division as two certified finishers square off in Anaheim. The oddsmakers give a pretty large edge to Hernandez, who is currently a -258 moneyline favorite. Kopylov comes in at +210 to knock off the American on his home turf.

I respect the resume that Kopylov is putting together, but I think it’ll be Hernadez who gets his hand raised on Saturday night. If this fight stays on the feet the whole time, maybe I’d give an edge to the Russian. However, I anticipate Hernandez going back to his dynamic wrestling for this fight. He has landed 22 combined takedowns over his last three fights. Fluffy’s always pressing forward and looking to take the fight to the ground.

On that note, we have to remember that Kopylov was formerly a five-time combat sambo champion. He boasts an impressive 92% takedown defense rate in the UFC. I’m expecting a high volume of takedown attempts from Hernandez, many of which will be negated by Kopylov. However, a little ground control time can go a long way in these short fights. If he’s able to successfully land a couple of takedowns while keeping things even on the feet, Hernandez should win this bout. Let’s ride with Hernandez to win by points. 

Bet: Anthony Hernandez To Win By Decision (+275)

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