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UFC 298 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Ian Garry vs. Geoff Neal (2024)

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Ian Garry vs. Geoff Neal has the potential to be the fight of the night. The cancellation of the first fight brought a ton of speculation about Garry, a polarizing figure at the time. Garry carries the burden of being the next possible megastar out of Ireland. Meanwhile, Neal is a grizzled veteran with legitimate one-punch knockout power, who will easily be the biggest test of Garry’s young career.

This sets up for an absolute banger; Let’s dive in!

Ian Garry vs. Geoff Neal: UFC 298 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Let’s look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.

Glossary

    • Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
    • Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
    • Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
    • Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
    • Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
    • KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
    • Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
    • Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
    • Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

    The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter’s last three fights. This indicates a fighter’s form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let’s look at this compelling matchup!

    Ian Garry (-230) vs. Geoff Neal (+190)

    Ian Garry

    • Dist Acc Off: 54.7%
    • Dist Att/Min: 13.75
    • Dist Def: 55%
    • KD%: .6% (4 KDs out of 325 distance strikes)
    • Control % Off: 4.3%
    • Control % Def: 12.7%

    Geoff Neal

    • Dist Acc Off: 50.1%
    • Dist Att/Min: 11.61
    • Dist Def: 59%
    • KD%: .2% (2 KDs out of 354 distance strikes)
    • Control % Off: 12.6%
    • Control % Def: 7.6%

    Garry is 6-0 in his UFC career, with three KOs/TKOS and three decision victories. In his last fight, Garry completely dismantled Neil Magny with leg kicks and controlled the entire fight. Garry is incredibly accurate and maintains a decent activity. One of the biggest areas that stood out to me is that Garry is only facing 9.88 distance attempts per minute. That is an extremely low number. Neal isn’t a tornado of activity, but he averages 20% more distance attempts per minute than that. Garry is carrying an incredible amount of pressure into this fight. His antics in wearing a t-shirt with Neal’s mugshot on it and the backlash he is getting about his personal life add extreme fuel to this fire.

    Neal is by far the hardest opponent he has faced to date. The 33-year-old’s last five fights are a murderer’s row of opponents: Shavkat Rakhmonov, Vicente Luque, Santiago Ponzinibbio, Magny and Stephen Thompson. Outside of an aging Luque and Ponzinnibbio, I would not have favored Garry against Rakhmonov or Thompson. Neal has only been finished once in his 11 UFC fights, which was via submission in his last fight. Neal has also faced an incredible pace recently. In the sample size of his last five fights, opponents have averaged 18.29 distance attempts per minute. Garry’s slower calculated pace will play into Neal’s favor.

    I do not believe Garry can finish Neal and because of that, he will be in for a scrap that he has yet to experience.

    Bet: Geoff Neal (+190)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

    Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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