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UFC 298 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets

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UFC 298 presents a plethora of matchups to choose from for our longshot pick. I am going to lean towards Anthony Hernandez vs Roman Kopylov. We have a clash of two styles which usually presents us with clear paths to victory on either side. Let’s dive in!!!

UFC 298 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.

Glossary

  • Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
  • Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
  • Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
  • Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
  • Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
  • KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
  • Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
  • Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
  • Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!

Anthony Hernandez (-245) vs Roman Kopylov (+200)

Anthony Hernandez 

  • Dist Acc Off: 50.3%
  • Dist Att/Min: 15.51
  • Dist Def: 60%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out 70 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 62.7%
  • Control % Def: 17.2%

Roman Kopylov 

  • Dist Acc Off: 52.4%
  • Dist Att/Min: 9.81
  • Dist Def: 63%
  • KD%: 1.7% (5 KDs out of 279 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 2.3%
  • Control % Def: 12.4%

This is your classic clash of styles. Anthony Hernandez is a world-class BJJ practitioner while Roman Kopylov is a phenomenal kickboxer. One thing we can see in both fighters is they are fundamentally sound with their defense. Kopylov fights at a more measured pace whereas Hernandez ramps up the activity to get into grappling range.

Hernandez is on a four-fight winning streak, with three of them coming by finish. His last loss was at the hands of Kevin Holland back in 2020. Hernandez has an insane 60.7% offensive control rate. This is a top-5 rate across all weight classes. His simple path to victory is to get this fight to the ground and force Kopylov to submit.

Kopylov is on his own four-fight winning streak that has ended with four KO/TKOs. He is a well-polished striker that finishes his opponents when they are hurt. Kopylov will make his 7th UFC appearance on Saturday.

What stands out to me in this matchup is Kopylov was finished in his first fight in the UFC via RNC. Karl Roberson only had 55 seconds of control time in that fight and was able to secure the submission. If Hernandez gets this fight to the ground once, I feel as if that will be the end of it. My longshot bet is Hernandez to secure a first-round submission.

Bet: Anthony Hernandez first-round submission (+400)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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