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UFC 298 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Henry Cejudo (2024)

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The UFC is back with another numbered event, this one being UFC 298. The promotion heads to Anaheim on Saturday, where Alexander Volkanovski (C) puts his Featherweight belt on the line against Ilia Topuria (#3). Topuria’s fellow Georgian, Merab Dvalishvili (#2), is also fighting on the main card, squaring off against Henry Cejudo (#3) in a Bantamweight brawl. This should be an electric fight. Let’s dive into each fighter’s form and wrap up the piece with a best bet. 

UFC 298: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Henry Cejudo Betting Guide

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Merab Dvalishvili (16-4-0)

Last Five Fights: (W-W-W-W-W)

At this rate, it feels like it’s only a matter of time until Merab Dvalishvili gets his title shot. The Georgian brawler has rattled off nine straight wins, which includes toppling some of the best in the weight class. His two recent victories came against Jose Aldo (U-DEC) and Petr Yan (U-DEC), more recently. Dvalishvili made pretty light work of Yan over five rounds, out-striking him 147-75 while racking up an insane 11 takedowns (compared to his one). 

The Machine is a high-volume fighter in every aspect of MMA. Starting with his wrestling, he’s landing 6.55 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 36% success rate. He’s also defending 78% of opposing attempts. In terms of his striking, Dvalishvili is landing 4.46 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 2.41 strikes. As for his accolades, the 33-year-old is a black belt in Judo. 

Betting Profile: Henry Cejudo (16-3-0) 

Last Five Fights: (L-W-W-W-W)

Former champion Henry Cejudo returned to the octagon after a three-year layoff in his last fight. The now-37-year-old lost that championship tilt to Aljamain Sterling in a split decision. However, the metrics weren’t very split as Sterling amassed more significant strikes (135 to 99), landed at a more efficient rate (64% to 56%), and won the takedown battle (4 to 3). The defeat was Cejudo’s first since 2016 and it snapped a six-fight win streak. Four of those six wins were in title fights.

The decorated wrestler leans on those skills often in the cage, racking up 2.07 takedowns per 15 minutes. He’s landing takedowns at a 34% success rate while defending 83% of opposing takedowns. As for his striking, Cejudo is landing 3.93 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.15 strikes. 

Bottom Line

This should be a thrilling Bantamweight fight between two veterans of the octagon. The oddsmakers give a decent edge to Merab Dvalishvili, who currently sits as a -218 moneyline favorite. Henry Cejudo comes back at +180 to get his hand raised. 

I have to go with the chalk pick in this spot, I’m taking Dvalishvili to win by decision. The Georgian is on an astronomical trajectory in the UFC, rattling off nine straight victories. No one has really been a threat to him over the nine-fight win streak.

The big question is whether or not Henry Cejudo’s wrestling can neutralize the high-paced Dvalishvili. First off, I don’t think so. It’s a constant barrage of takedowns from Dvalishvili, so I feel that he’s bound to land a few. Also, we saw Cejudo surrender four takedowns in his last fight against Aljamain Sterling. 

Even if Triple C can keep his opponent off him, I don’t give a huge advantage to Cejudo on the feet. Mainly, it’s because Dvalishvili is a tough man to hit. He’s absorbing only 2.41 significant strikes per minute. Ultimately, Dvalishvili is the younger, quicker, and more active fighter. In a short three-round fight, I think he’ll do enough to get his hand raised against the former champion. 

Bet: Merab Dvalishvili To Win By Decision (-135)

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