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UFC 298 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Robert Whittaker vs. Paulo Costa (2024)

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The UFC is back with another numbered event, this one being UFC 298. The promotion heads to Anaheim on Saturday, where Alexander Volkanovski (C) puts his Featherweight belt on the line against Ilia Topuria (#3). Just before the main event, we have a banger in the Middleweight division as Robert Whittaker (#3) squares off against Paulo Costa (#6). Let's dive into the co-main event, break down each fighter's current form, and wrap it up by locking in a best bet. 

UFC 298: Robert Whittaker vs. Paulo Costa Betting Guide

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Robert Whittaker (25-7-0)

Last Five Fights: (L-W-L-W-W)

Former champion Robert Whittaker has been a force in the Middleweight division for years. Dating back to 2014, he has lost only three fights, with all three coming against champions or eventual champions (Adesanya x2, Du Plessis). The last time out was a losing effort for Whittaker, as he was knocked out in the second round by current champion Dricus Du Plessis. You have to go back to September 2022 to find Whittaker's last win, a unanimous decision against Marvin Vettori. He out-struck his opponent 74-38 while securing one takedown. 

Statistically, the 33-year-old is landing 4.47 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 3.39. As for his grappling, the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt is defending 82% of opposing takedown attempts. He's landing 0.85 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 39% success rate. 

Betting Profile: Paulo Costa (14-2-0)

Last Five Fights: (W-L-L-W-W)

Paulo Costa got back in the win column last time out, snapping a two-fight slide. The victory came via unanimous decision in a three-round tilt against Luke Rockhold in August 2022. The Brazilian out-struck his opponent 73-53 while also winning the takedown battle 2-1. Previously, Costa had dropped fights to Marvin Vettori (U-DEC) and Israel Adesanya (KO - Punch). The latter of the two was a title fight in September 2020, and Costa was dominated in the striking category, losing 55-12. 

You know you're getting a high-octane brawl when "The Eraser" steps in the cage. He's landing an inflated 6.50 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 6.38 strikes. As for his wrestling, Costa's landing 0.53 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 75% clip. He's successfully defending opposing attempts 79% of the time. Finally, it's worth noting the 32-year-old is a BJJ black belt as well. 

Bottom Line

The oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook have Robert Whittaker listed as a sizable -250 moneyline favorite. Paulo Costa comes back at +205 to get his hand raised on Saturday. 

While Costa is always a threat, I have to side with the sportsbooks and say that Whittaker should get the job done. He's the much more battle-tested fighter, going toe-to-toe (and winning) against guys like Marvin Vettori, Kelvin Gastelum, Jared Cannonier and Darren Till. I mean, if it weren't for Israel Adesanya, Whittaker could've been in control of the Middleweight division for years. 

Rather than lay the moneyline juice, I'll lock in the New Zealander to win by points. This is just a short three-round fight, so neither man should run into stamina issues. Ultimately, I think it boils down to Whittaker being the more well-rounded fighter. He's absorbing only 3.39 significant strikes per minute, compared to Costa's 6.38 strikes taken per minute. I feel Whittaker's the more technical of the fighters, so he should be able to land enough blows over the 15 minutes to get it done. Finally, I should mention that Whittaker's last six victories have all gone to the judges' scorecards. Let's ride with Whittaker to win by decision. 

Bet: Robert Whittaker By Decision (+110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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