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UFC 298 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Top Prop Bets

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Prop bets always seem to be an action-type wager. That does not necessarily have to be the case. You can analyze a fight and come to a conclusion that doesn’t have to be a flyer-type bet. We will choose our fight from the Heavyweight division where matchups tend to be more volatile. Let’s dive in!!!

UFC 298 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Props

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Let’s look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.

Glossary

  • Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
  • Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
  • Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
  • Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
  • Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
  • KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
  • Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
  • Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
  • Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter’s last three fights. This indicates a fighter’s form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-148) vs. Justin Tafa (+124)

Marcos Rogerio de Lima 

  • Dist Acc Off: 60.4%
  • Dist Att/Min: 22.15
  • Dist Def: 51%
  • KD%: 1.5% (2 KDs out of 133 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 25.2%
  • Control % Def: 13.1%

Justin Tafa has a total of 4 minutes and 50 seconds in his last four fights combined. Therefore, he does not have a large enough sample size for an advanced statistical profile.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima is coming off an absolute beatdown from Derrick Lewis. Lewis blitzed him with a flying knee, and that was all she wrote. Rogerio de Lima is the more experienced fighter by a wide margin, but my biggest concern is his extremely high level of activity. A heavyweight who attempts 22.15 distance attempts per minute is begging for a counterpunch.

Tafa is that counterpuncher. He has three knockdowns in his last three fights, and they were essentially walk-off knockouts. Tafa is younger by eight years and faster. Rogerio de Lima cannot stand in the pocket with him and expect to trade. That would be an absolute disaster. I expect Tafa to land a counterpunch that ends the fight quickly.

Bet: Justin Tafa by first-round KO/TKO (+240)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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