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UFC 298 Preliminary Card Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)

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The UFC is back with another numbered event, this one being UFC 298. On Saturday, the promotion heads to Anaheim, Calif., where Alexander Volkanovski (C) puts his Featherweight belt on the line against Ilia Topuria (#3). From top to bottom, this whole card is stacked.

Below, I’ve provided analysis and bets from three preliminary fights that caught my eye. Let’s have a profitable Saturday night on the canvas!

UFC 298 Preliminary Card Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

#3 Amanda Lemos (-135) vs. #7 Mackenzie Dern (+114) 

The prelims wrap up with a ranked showdown in the Women’s Strawweight division as Amanda Lemos (#3) takes on Mackenzie Dern (#7). Lemos will be looking to bounce back after dropping a title fight against Zhang Weili (U-DEC) last time out. Dern was also on the losing end of her last tilt, getting knocked out in the second round by Jessica Andrade. 

I won’t overthink this one; I’m riding with the higher-ranked fighter in Lemos. The Brazilian has a huge edge on the feet, considering eight of her 13 professional wins have come by knockout. Lemos has three submission victories on her resumé, so she’s also lethal on the ground. She’ll have to be careful, considering Dern is a third-degree black belt with seven professional submission wins in her own right. 

However, Dern’s takedown defense is very concerning. She’s fending off only 40% of opposing attempts. As long as Lemos can avoid getting subbed while on top, she should be able to create a good enough case to get her hand raised. 

Bet: Amanda Lemos Moneyline (-135)

#15 Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-148) vs. Justin Tafa (+124) 

Just before the above-mentioned women’s bout, we have a Heavyweight clash between Marcos Rogerio de Lima (#15) and Justin Tafa. Despite riding a three-fight win streak, Tafa’s a decently-sized underdog on Saturday. His Brazilian opponent will be looking to rebound after a knockout loss to Derrick Lewis last July. 

We’re getting coin-flip odds to say this fight does not make it out of the first round. I’ll take a shot with these two knockout artists and say this bout is over before the first horn. Tafa’s a pure knockout merchant, seeing all seven of his professional wins come by KO. Five (4W-1L) of his seven UFC fights have ended with first-round knockouts.

As for Lima, 14 of his 21 professional victories are courtesy of the knockout. He’s a bit more elusive, absorbing only 2.96 significant strikes per minute. Still, if he stands in the pocket with Tafa, someone’s going down early.

Bet: Fight To Start Round 2: No (-110)

Zhang Mingyang (-122) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+102) 

The prelims open up with a banger in the Light Heavyweight division as Zhang Mingyang squares off against Brendson Ribeiro. Mingyang is the slightest of favorites at -122 on the moneyline. His Brazilian counterpart comes back at +102 to get his hand raised. 

Someone’s going to sleep in this fight. The oddsmakers agree, pricing the under 1.5 rounds at -298. You get a +220 payout if you’re brave enough to take the over. Mingyang enters at 16-6-0, with 10 wins by knockout and six coming via submission. Also, of his six losses, three have been knockouts, and two have been by tapping. As for Ribeiro, he’s 15-5-0 (1NC), with nine wins coming by knockout and six coming by submission. Four-fifths of his losses have ended prior to the judges’ scorecards. 

So, being that this fight is so evenly matched, I will ride with Ribeiro with the plus-money payout. The Brazilian has the edge in both height (6-foot-3 vs. 6-foot-2) and reach (81 inches vs. 75 inches), and his opponents are landing less often than Mingyang’s (36% vs. 41%). While it sounds obvious, not absorbing massive blows will likely determine the winner in this one. Let’s take a flier on Ribeiro. 

Bet: Brendson Ribeiro Moneyline (+102)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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