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UFC 298 Volkanovski vs. Topuria: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)

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The Featherweight strap is on the line, with a couple of top-five contender matches. The champ, Alexander Volkanovski, will put his belt on the line against Ilia Topuria, the third-ranked contender at Featherweight.

Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa will square off in the co-main event as Whittaker looks to get back on track against the inactive Costa. Merab Dvalishvili and Henry Cejudo face off early in the main card in a bantamweight title-contender-elimination-fight.

The stacked pay-per-view card starts at 10 p.m. ET, with the prelims set to begin at 6 p.m.

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UFC 298 Volkanovski vs. Topuria: Parlay Picks

2024 total: Down 1 unit | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Leg 1: Danny Barlow Money Line (-205)

Danny Barlow earned a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series following a quick first-round knockout over Raheam Forest. He now gets his first UFC test against Josh Quinlan. Quinlan is 6-1 (1 NC) overall and most recently lost a decision against Trey Waters. Waters landed twice as many strikes as Quinlan and picked Quinlan apart from range. Barlow could employ the same strategy as Waters in this scrap.

Barlow has a seven-inch reach advantage over Quinlan and knows how to use it. He is a powerful and technically precise striker, especially with his left hand. He fights as a southpaw, so his left hand is his money shot. Quinlan is hittable and does not have the wrestling to change the position of this fight. He absorbs 5.97 strikes per minute and has only landed 12% of his takedowns. Expect Barlow to use his long reach and movement to stay on the outside as he hunts for a lightning-quick left hand.

Leg 2: Amanda Lemos Money Line (-135)

This Women’s Strawweight matchup will conclude the prelims on ESPN, so it could be an opportunity to gain some fans. Amanda Lemos is entering off a loss in her first attempt at the title and faces Mackenzie Dern, who is also entering following a loss to Jessica Andrade. Zhang Weili cruised to a decision victory over Lemos with six takedowns, which negated Lemos’ power.

Dern could have trouble finding those takedowns, however. Dern has one of the best grappling skill sets in women’s MMA, but she cannot get the fight to the mat. She has only converted 14% of her takedown attempts and could struggle to find takedowns against the explosive Lemos. Lemos surrendered six takedowns in her recent title fight, but Dern only averages .77 takedowns per 15 minutes.

The ability to control where the action takes place should lie with Lemos and help her unleash her power on the feet. Dern’s striking has improved in recent bouts, but it is still sloppy and not as precise as her opponent’s. Lemos has the power to knock Dern out, but expect extreme toughness from Dern, who has shown it before. Either way, Lemos should avoid Dern’s dangerous submissions and be able to keep this fight standing.

Leg 3: Alexander Volkanovski Money Line (-125)

Volkanovski has lost two of his last three fights. Islam Makhachev defeated him twice at Lightweight, with the last coming on short notice. The first matchup was as competitive as it gets at this level, but the rematch was one-sided. He admittedly was not disciplined and consumed alcohol daily for weeks leading up to receiving the call to fill in for Charles Oliveira 11 days before the event.

Topuria (14-0) will challenge Volkanovski after a six-fight winning streak to start his UFC career. He recently defeated Josh Emmett via unanimous decision to earn the title shot and submitted Bryce Mitchell. His first four fights were not against the highest-caliber opponents, however. Jai Herbert even knocked him down before getting knocked out himself in the second round of their fight. There is no doubt Topuria is a top-five featherweight, but he is not on the level of Volkanovski quite yet.

Volkanovski is known for his well-rounded skillset and toughness. He is the furthest from a quitter and has some of the best cardio in the promotion. He will want to keep this fight standing, as Topuria is a polished grappler with slick submission skills. Volkanovski’s advantage lies in his ability to move on the outside and land lots of volume.

A sneaky part of Volkanovski’s skillset is his strength. Makhachev was surprised at his strength during their first matchup, and when paired with his speed, offered him the toughest matchup of his career. Topuria may have trouble handling his speed and strength, especially in the clinch. Expect Volkanovski to weaponize his cardio and hunt for body shots early as he tries to tire Topuria. If he softens him early, the power punches and kicks will be there later in the fight when Topuria is tired.

Total Parlay Odds: +366

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