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UFC 299 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Gilbert Burns (2024)

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The theme at UFC 299 seems to be an up-and-coming prospect against an established veteran. Normally this is a recipe for showing off the younger prospect against slightly better competition, but this card throws these young prospects to the wolves.

This fight will be no different as Jack Della Maddalena faces Gilbert Burns. Burns is coming off a shoulder injury that hindered his entire performance his last time out, and Jack Della Maddalena is coming off an underwhelming fight against Kevin Holland. I have a feeling this fight will produce more fireworks than both fighters’ previous bouts.

Let’s dive in!

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Gilbert Burns: UFC 299 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best prop bets.

Glossary

    • Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
    • Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
    • Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
    • Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
    • Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
    • KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
    • Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
    • Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
    • Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

    The primary key to this analysis is looking at each fighter's last three fights. This indicates a fighter's form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let's look at this compelling matchup!

    Jack Della Maddalena (-166) vs. Gilbert Burns (+140)

    Jack Della Maddalena 

    • Dist Acc Off: 52.2%
    • Dist Att/Min: 14.91
    • Dist Def: 70%
    • KD%: 2.1% (5 KDs out of 245 distance strikes)
    • Control % Off: 2.1%
    • Control % Def: 5.3%

    Gilbert Burns

    • Dist Acc Off: 52.3%
    • Dist Att/Min: 8.31
    • Dist Def: 56%
    • KD%: .4% (1 KD out of 233 distance strikes)
    • Control % Off: 18.6%
    • Control % Def: 3.5%

    Della Maddalena is coming off an extremely bizarre fight against Kevin Holland. It was more of a sparring match than an actual fight. Neither fighter was throwing at 100% speed and or with any ill intentions. Della Maddalen is 7-0 in his UFC career, but his last two fights give me pause. He lacked aggression against Holland, and his overall fight IQ against Bassil Hafez seemed off. In the Hafez fight, he pulled for a guillotine submission countless amount of times and, in my opinion, should’ve lost that decision. This makes back-to-back split-decision victories for Maddalena. I anticipate this fight will be pushed by Burns, who wants to prove that his last fight was indeed a fluke.

    Burns is coming off his own subpar performance, but a shoulder injury mid-fight hampered it. The last time Burns fought a prospect, it was Khamzat Chimaev, and it was the fight of the year. There isn’t as much hype behind this fight as that one, but the premise is the same. Della Maddalena is moving up the ranks and is viewed as a young contender. Burns is the hardened veteran looking for one more title run. Burns’ biggest weakness is his ability to defend the jab. He fights at a moderate pace but is constantly moving forward. Burns is not as technically sound as Della Maddalena, but he does possess one-punch power. Not to mention, he is world-class on the ground.

    On the surface, Della Maddalena has above-average defensive control, but he was controlled for 6 minutes and 48 seconds in the Bassil Hafez fight. This fight will be over if Burns gets to a control position on the ground.

    Burns’s age gives me pause, but Della Maddalena’s last two performances make me stop in my tracks. Burns has a direct path to victory on the ground and can still land a power punch to end this fight. Pair that with Maddalena’s trajectory over these last two fights, and I have to side with Burns.

    Bet: Gilbert Burns (+140)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

    Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!

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