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UFC 299 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong (2024)

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The UFC heads to South Beach this weekend for another numbered event. This one's UFC 299, which features an absolutely stacked card. The headliner pits Sean O'Malley (C) against Marlon Vera (#5) for the Bantamweight title. The main card opens up with another Bantamweight clash, seeing former two-time champion Petr Yan (#4) square off against Song Yadong (#7).

Let's dive into the opener, check out each fighter's recent form, and wrap it up with my favorite bet for the fight. 

Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong: UFC 299 Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Petr Yan (16-5-0)

Last Five Fights: L-L-L-W-L

It has been a tough run for former two-time champion Petr Yan. However, once you break open the fight log and look at who he has lost to recently, you realize that he's constantly fighting against the cream of the crop in the division. The 31-year-old's lone win over his last five fights came against Cory Sandhagen (U-DEC) while the defeats came at the hands of Aljamain Sterling twice in championship fights (DQ, S-DEC), Sean O'Malley (S-DEC), and Merab Dvalishvili (U-DEC).

Yan, like most fighters nowadays, was simply out-classed by Dvalishvili, getting out-struck 147-75 while losing the takedown battle 11-1. That was last March. This upcoming bout will be the Russian's first time back in the octagon since then. 

Statistically, Yan's landing 5.03 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.26 strikes. In terms of his grappling, he's averaging an inflated 1.71 takedowns per minute at a 52% success rate. The former champ's also defending 85% of opposing takedowns.

Yan is very accomplished in terms of accolades, boasting a Master of Sport in both Boxing and Mixed Martial Arts. He also owns a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. 

Betting Profile: Song Yadong (21-7-1, 1 NC)

Last Five Fights: W-W-L-W-W

Song Yadong has proven that he's a threat in the Bantamweight division. Now, he's finally looking to break into the top five. He had one prior attempt at making it into the top five, but Cory Sandhagen (#4 at the time) finished him at the end of the fourth round (KO/TKO - Doctor's Stoppage).

Yadong has since bounced back by securing a pair of victories, taking care of Ricky Simon (KO/TKO - Punch) and Chris Gutierrez (U-DEC). The Chinese brawler was out-struck 87-77, but he amassed 11:01 worth of ground control while winning the takedown battle 2-0. 

Takedowns aren't a massive element of Yadong's game considering he's averaging only 0.63 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's landing takedowns at a 58% clip while defending 73% of opposing attempts. In terms of his striking, the 26-year-old is landing 4.38 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.73 strikes. 

Bottom Line

The oddsmakers over at DraftKings see Yan as a slim (-120) favorite to win this three-round tilt. Song Yadong comes back at +100 to get his hand raised. 

I feel like this is a great opportunity to get Yan at a low price, so I'm going to lay the -120 juice with him. The Russian may be in a little bit of a slump, but he has lost two split decisions and lasted 25 minutes against the quickly ascending Merab Dvalishvili. He's clearly the more battle-tested brawler, and we saw what happened last time Yadong tried to take a step up in competition. He was dismantled by Sandhagen for 20 minutes before the doctor stepped in to stop the fight. 

That's really the only handicap I have here. Yan has his eyes set on getting back to the headlining days and title fights. I think he smokes Yadong. Yan has more experience, he's the better grappler, and he also has the elusiveness to avoid those powerful knockout blows from his opponent.

On that note, Yan has never been knocked out in his professional career (1 DQ, 4 DEC). Look for the former champ to get back to his winning ways on Saturday night. 

Bet: Petr Yan Moneyline (-120)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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