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UFC 299 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera (2024)

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The UFC heads to South Beach this weekend for another numbered event. This one's UFC 299, which features an absolutely stacked card. The headliner pits Sean O'Malley (C) against Marlon Vera (#5) for the Bantamweight title. This will be a rematch from UFC 252, where Vera secured a first-round knockout over O'Malley. Let's dive into each fighter's recent form, check out their statistics, and wrap it up with my favorite bet for the main event. 

UFC 299: Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera Betting Guide

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Sean O'Malley (17-1-0, 1 NC)

Last Five Fights: WWNcWW

Suga Sean O'Malley will be making his first title defense this weekend after securing the belt against Aljamain Sterling back in August 2023. The 29-year-old knocked out Sterling (punches) just 0:51 into the second round. This marked O'Malley's second straight win, with the prior victory coming against Petr Yan (S-DEC) in October 2022. The American out-struck Yan 84-58 while losing the takedown battle 6-0. The only blemish on O'Malley's 17-1-0 record came against Vera in August 2020, and you can essentially throw that fight out the window due to O'Malley suffering that foot/leg injury. 

Statistically, O'Malley is extremely active in terms of striking, landing 7.25 significant strikes per minute. He's absorbing only 3.51 strikes per minute. As for his grappling, Suga executes 42 percent of his takedown attempts for an average of 0.43 takedowns per 15 minutes. He's defending 62 percent of opposing attempts, and he stuffed both (2/2) of Sterling's takedown attempts last time out. In terms of accolades, O'Malley boasts a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. 

Betting Profile: Marlon Vera (23-8-1)

Last Five Fights: WLWWW

If there's one guy who will tell you the first meeting between these two brawlers wasn't a fluke, it'll be Marlon Chito Vera. It was Vera's calf kick that he threw, which struck a nerve in O'Malley's leg, causing the leg damage. He'd go on to finish him later in the first round (KO/TKO - elbows). The Ecuadorian has been busy since the first brawl, going 5-2 since the victory. Vera fought on the same UFC 292 card where O'Malley earned the strap. Chito won a unanimous decision in a high-volume tilt against Pedro Munhoz, out-striking him 141-113 over 15:00 minutes. 

The output against Munhoz was a bit of an outlier, considering Vera is averaging a middle-of-the-road 4.37 significant strikes per minute. He's absorbing 5.16 strikes per minute. In terms of his wrestling, the BJJ black belt is landing only 0.58 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 39 percent clip. He's defending 70 percent of opposing takedown attempts. 

Bottom Line

Suga Sean O'Malley's a pretty sizable favorite over at DraftKings Sportsbook, coming in at -278 to retain his championship belt. Marlon Chito Vera comes back at +225 to get his hand raised. This will be the 31-year-old's first title shot. 

I have to agree with the oddsmakers that O'Malley does enough to hang onto his belt on Saturday night. His moneyline is a little steep to play alone, so it could be worth parlaying with something else to knock off some of that juice. With that being said, for those looking for a larger payout, I think we have to roll with O'Malley to win by KO/TKO/DQ. 

Suga's a knockout artist, winning 12 of his 17 professional fights by KO. This is also a great matchup for O'Malley against a very patient Vera. The Ecuadorian is always slow to start, sizing up and gauging his competition. However, as we saw in the Sandhagen fight, it was too little too late for Vera, who ultimately lost in a split decision. Vera's a tough guy to get out of the cage, but if he just lingers around and allows O'Malley to attempt big-time strikes, he's going to find himself in trouble. Let's lock in O'Malley to get his revenge and to do it by knockout. 

Bet: Sean O'Malley To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+240 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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