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UFC 300 Odds & Picks: Longshot Sleeper Bets (2024)

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The UFC is back with a jam-packed card for UFC 300! This action-packed event will surely be one of the most anticipated and watched events this year. The main event is the Light Heavyweight Title fight between Jamahal Hill and Alex Pereira. Here, I will detail a longshot prop worth the risk below and hopefully make this card even more exciting!

UFC 300 Longshot Prop Bet (2024)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Zhang Weili (-485) vs. Yan Xiaonan (+370)

I previewed this fight already and detailed how this prop has a bunch of value; you can find that article on my author page on BettingPros. I recommend reading it, as it will go into a little more detail about the fighters and their backgrounds. In this one, I will detail why this prop has so much value.

Zhang Weili is not necessarily known for her submissions, but she is skilled on the mat. She has gotten a reputation for her vicious ground-and-pound, but she has eight submission victories in her 24 career wins. Her last submission victory was a rear-naked choke on Carla Esparza to win the title for the second time. That fight was in 2022, which was not that long ago.

Yan Xiaonan was taken down three times by Carla Esparza and put in a crucifix position, which ultimately led to the finish. Esparza is not known for her submission skills and has not submitted anyone since 2014, when she caught Rose Namajunas in a rear-naked choke. In this fight, Zhang will attack Yan from top positions and could easily find her back.

Another past matchup to take into account is Yan's fight with Mackenzie Dern. This fight took place in an empty Apex, which helped Yan immensely. You could hear both corners coaching their fighters through each position on the television, and Yan navigated the two submission attempts that Dern threatened. They both came in the second round after Dern pulled guard and lured Yan to the mat. Dern eventually took her back and kept changing positions while looking for submissions. Yan Xiaonan did survive that onslaught from Dern, but it will be much harder against Zhang Weili.

Zhang's top pressure is the difference Yan will experience on the mat, and one that Dern did not possess. Dern used the fence to find takedowns via trips and throws on Yan. Zhang will shoot traditional takedowns that are well-timed and end up on top. She will then apply top pressure and not let Yan move positions. Yan quickly gave her back to Dern but escaped because Dern did not keep downward pressure. In this fight, Zhang will keep downward pressure and flatten Yan out. It could end via a TKO and is also a great position to find a choke. The choke is a surefire way to keep the referee from making a hard decision, and at this price, it is a no-brainer to bet.

Bet: Zhang Weili To Win by Submission (+500)

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