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UFC 300 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill (2024)

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We have a monumental UFC 300 card on the horizon, featuring two championship fights and six additional top-15 bouts.

Below, I'll dive into the main event, a Light Heavyweight title fight between Alex Pereira (C) and Jamahal Hill (#1), from a betting perspective. We’ll check out each fighter's recent form and their statistics. We’ll then wrap it up with my favorite bet for this banger of a matchup.

UFC 300 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Alex Pereira (9-2-0)

Last Five Fights: W-W-L-W-W

After a very successful kickboxing career, Pereira transitioned into mixed martial arts, and he's been equally dominant in the octagon. The Brazilian took the UFC by storm, climbing the Middleweight rankings, beating Sean Strickland (KO/TKO - Punches) and splitting two championship fights against Israel Adesanya (W: KO/TKO - Punches; L: KO/TKO: Punch). After dropping the rematch against Adesanya, Pereira made the jump to the Light Heavyweight division, where he edged out Jan Blachowicz (S-DEC) and earned the belt against Jiri Prochazka (KO/TKO - Elbows). We're all up to date at this point, and the 36-year-old will be making his first Light Heavyweight title defense. 

Statistically, “Poatan” is pretty active in the striking department, landing 5.00 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.65 strikes. As for his grappling, Pereira boasts a respectable 70% takedown defense rate, and he's landing just 0.19 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 100% success rate. It's worth noting he's a black belt in kickboxing and a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. 

Betting Profile: Jamahal Hill (12-1-0, 1 NC)

Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-L

The former Light Heavyweight champion Hill will be looking to reclaim his belt on Saturday night. The 32-year-old beat Glover Teixeira in a five-round title fight (U-DEC) last time out, but he was forced to vacate the strap due to an Achilles tendon injury. Before the championship bout, Hill had racked up three additional wins, taking care of Jimmy Crute (KO/TKO - Punch), Johnny Walker (KO/TKO - Punch) and Thiago Santos (KO/TKO - Elbows). As you can tell, the American has plenty of knockout power. Seven of his 12 professional wins have come via knockout (five decisions). 

Hill is a high-volume fighter, averaging 7.32 significant strikes per minute. In the championship fight against Teixeira, Hill racked up 232 significant strikes! He absorbs 3.35 strikes per minute while defending 73% of opposing takedown attempts. The BJJ brown belt is not active in the takedown department, averaging 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 0% success rate. 

Bottom Line

The oddsmakers think we should be in for a close fight on Saturday night, as the champion is priced as a slim -125 moneyline favorite. Hill comes back at +105 to reclaim his Light Heavyweight belt. 

There's no doubt that we'll be in for a vertical fight in the main event, considering each of these brawlers is averaging under 0.25 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. While Hill packs plenty of power, I think Pereira will have the edge in a stand-up-style bout. With an impressive kickboxing background, the Brazilian should be able to use his kicks to keep the distance from Hill's heavy hands. 

Then there's the intangibles. I'm sure Hill went through extensive rehab on his Achilles, but it's fair to question how his mobility will hold up in his first time back in the octagon. Plus, this is a title fight, so he's certainly not easing back into the action with a tune-up contest.

I also believe Pereira is the more battle-tested of the two fighters. His last five fights came against Strickland, Adesanya (x2), Blachowicz and Prochazka. Meanwhile, Hill somehow managed to dodge Blachowicz and Prochazka en route to his Light Heavyweight title, where he fought the elderly Glover Teixeira. Honestly, I'm surprised to see Pereira as such a small favorite, so I'll lock him in at this relatively short price. 

Bet: Alex Pereira Moneyline (-125)

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