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UFC 300 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage (2024)

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We have a monumental UFC 300 card on the horizon, featuring two championship fights and six additional top-15 bouts. One of the unranked matchups pits Bo Nickal against Cody Brundage in a Middleweight tilt to open up the main card. Below I'll dive into each fighter's recent form, touch on their statistics and wrap up the article with my favorite bet for this tilt. 

UFC 300 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage (2024)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Bo Nickal (5-0-0)

Last Four Fights: W-W-W-W

The hype surrounding Bo Nickal appears to be real as the 28-year-old is off to a perfect 5-0 start in his MMA career, which includes a 4-0 stretch in the UFC. Nickal racked up three submission victories in his first three fights while adding a first-round knockout against Val Woodburn in July of 2023. On that note, it's worth mentioning that all four of his UFC wins have ended in the first round. An even crazier metric is that over Nickal's four fights, he has only landed 15 significant strikes while being hit just three times.

Nickal's grappling numbers are extremely inflated due to the early stoppages. He's averaging 11.04 takedowns per 15 minutes while throwing 13.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes. The three-time National Championship-winning wrestler's takedown defense hasn't been tested yet but the first half of this sentence speaks for his ability to fend off opposing takedowns. In terms of striking, Nickal's landing 2.76 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 0.55 strikes. 

Betting Profile: Cody Brundage (10-5-0)

Last Five Fights: W-W-L-L-L

Cody Brundage will make the walk for the second time in roughly five months, and he's looking to build on a first-round knockout (Slam) against Zachary Reese. The less-than-two-minute effort earned the 29-year-old a Fight of the Night bonus. That December bout is the second of a current two-fight win streak, where Brundage won via DQ against Jacob Malkoun in September 2023. Brundage is just 4-5 in his UFC career. This tilt with Nickal will be his tallest task yet. 

Statistically, Brundage is landing only 1.80 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.51 strikes per minute. In the grappling department, he's landing an impressive 2.69 takedowns per minute (52% success rate), while fending off 73% of opposing attempts. It's worth mentioning Brundage is a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

Bottom Line

The oddsmakers aren't giving Cody Brundage much of a shot on Saturday night, pricing him at +1100 to get his hand raised. Bo Nickal comes back at -2100 to secure his fifth straight win in the UFC. 

Nickal has demolished his first four opponents in the UFC, registering first-round finishes in each bout. I'm going to make a contrarian bet for this main card opener and say that the fight will last longer than five minutes (i.e. the fight will start the second round). 

The recipe is simple with Nickal in that he wants to secure an early takedown and go to work with submission attempts or ground-and-pound. Well, the Penn State grad isn't the only decorated wrestler stepping into the octagon on Saturday night. Brundage was a two-time NCAA qualifier out of Newberry College and he amassed a 128-22 high school wrestling record.

This will be tougher competition than his high school days but I think the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu blue belt will have enough in his arsenal to last at least five minutes. Brundage has excellent takedown defense, stuffing 73% of opposing attempts. Furthermore, he's averaging 2.69 takedowns per 15 minutes, so if he manages an early takedown and chews clock, this bet will look good. Ultimately, Nickal should win this fight. However, I'll venture to say it doesn't come as easy as his first four UFC victories. 

Bet: Fight To Start Round 2: Yes (+150)

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