Navigate

UFC 300 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan (2024)

by |

The UFC is back with the most stacked card ever for UFC 300. The early prelims are fights that could headline any fight night at the Apex. Do not miss a second of this action-packed event that will surely be one of the most anticipated and watched events this year.

The second fight of the main card will feature two Lightweights: Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan. Let's preview the matchup between two top-five contenders.

UFC 300: Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Charles Oliveira (+185)

Oliveira has been a mainstay in the UFC since 2010 and has fought the best of the best in the Featherweight and Lightweight divisions. He has won four of his last five fights, with his lone loss coming against the current Lightweight champion, Islam Makhachev. Oliveira won the Lightweight belt against Michael Chandler in 2021 and defended it once against Dustin Poirier. He was ineligible to retain the belt against Justin Gaethje because of a weight miss but beat him by submission in the first round.

Oliveira has evolved as a fighter since debuted in the UFC at 20 years old. He is 22-9 (1 NC) in the promotion and won 11 consecutive fights from 2018 to 2022. He lands 2.32 takedowns and averages 2.7 submissions attempted per 15 minutes. He lands 3.54 significant strikes and absorbs 3.19 significant strikes per minute.

Arman Tsarukyan (-225)

Tsarukyan is a 27-year-old fighter from Russia, who has faced high-tier opponents during his time with the UFC. He is 8-2 since entering the promotion and 4-1 in his last five. His losses came against Mateusz Gamrot (currently the fifth-ranked lightweight contender) and Makhachev. Makhachev was his debut fight in the promotion and made him one of four fighters to go the distance with him inside the UFC octagon. His most recent win was a knockout of Beneil Dariush in December 2023.

Tsarukyan lands 3.40 takedowns per 15 minutes with 31% accuracy and defends 75% of takedowns. He lands 3.85 significant strikes and absorbs 1.91 significant strikes per minute. He is a confident grappler and wrestler with solid top control, which could be the difference in this matchup.

Prediction

Oliveira is a fan-favorite for a reason:  He always entertains. He is not scared to exchange with some of the most-feared strikers in the UFC and has come out on top numerous times. However, Tsarukyan is not a good matchup for him. Oliveira welcomes opponents to the mat. He did this when rocked by Chandler, Poirier and Gaethje. Oliveira was ready to fight from guard because "Do Bronxs" could get to an advantageous position against them. Oliveira knocked out Chandler after narrowly avoiding being finished himself by pulling guard, and he submitted the other two. Tsarukyan will not be afraid to enter top control against Oliveira. He is too good of a wrestler to give up position and calculated on the feet.

Oliveira's path to victory in this fight is to beat him in a striking match. He could utilize his calf kick to destroy the lead leg of Tsarukyan, which would limit his takedown ability. He may not get a chance to land many calf kicks if he cannot avoid Tsarukyan's takedowns. Once Tsarukyan gets this fight to the mat, it will be hard for Oliveira to find his feet. He is the most dangerous submission artist in the UFC, but Tsarukyan's top pressure will be too much.

According to the oddsmakers, Tsarukyan's most likely method of victory is via knockout. Oliveira goes all out from the initial bell and is susceptible to being knocked down. Tsarukyan via decision makes the most sense, though. He will gain top control for most of the fight and stay safe to avoid Oliveira's submissions. He will do enough to get the nod from the judges.

Bet: Arman Tsarukyan To Win by Decision (+300)

More UFC 300 Odds & Picks

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App