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UFC 300 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway (2024)

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We have a monumental UFC 300 card on the horizon, featuring two championship fights and six additional top-15 bouts.

Just prior to the co-main event, there is a highly anticipated Lightweight war between Justin Gaethje (#2) and Max Holloway (#2 in the Featherweight division). Below, I'll discuss each fighter's recent form, touch on their statistics and wrap up the article with my favorite bet for this tilt. 

UFC 300 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Justin Gaethje (25-4-0)

Last Five Fights: W-W-L-W-L

Justin Gaethje secured the BMF title last time out at UFC 291, knocking out Dustin Poirier with a kick in the second round. The victory is part of a current two-fight win streak for the 35-year-old, where his prior win came against Rafael Fiziev (M-DEC) in March 2023. Gaethje's only two blemishes since 2018 are at the hands of Khabib Nurmagomedov (SUB - Triangle Choke) in a championship fight and against Charles Oliveira (SUB - Rear Naked Choke) in May 2022. The Oliveira fight was supposed to be for the championship, but the Brazilian missed weight. 

Despite having a wrestling background, the American doesn't use those skills often. He's averaging only 0.13 takedowns per 15 minutes (25% success rate), but he is defending 75% of opposing takedown attempts. In terms of striking, Gaethje is landing an insane 7.35 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 7.50 strikes per minute.

Betting Profile: Max Holloway (25-7-0)

Last Five Fights: W-W-L-W-W

Max Holloway will make the step up in weight from his normal Featherweight class (145 pounds), where he'll be fighting this weekend's bout at 155 pounds. This isn't the first time that he's made the jump, with the other notable attempt being a losing effort in the interim Lightweight championship against the previously-mentioned Poirier (U-DEC) in April 2019. Since that loss, Holloway is 5-3, with all three defeats coming against his personal boogeyman, Alexander Volkanovski (U-DEC x2, S-DEC). The American is riding a two-fight win streak, where he has taken care of Arnold Allen (U-DEC) and Chan Sung Jung (KO/TKO - Punch), more recently. 

There are high-volume strikers in the UFC, and then there's Max Holloway, who's the most active striker in the promotion. Holloway owns four of the top-six records for most significant strikes landed in a single fight, most notably a 578-strike performance against Calvin Kattar in 2021. He's landing 7.17 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing only 4.75 strikes. As for his grappling, “Blessed” boasts an 84% takedown defense rate, and he's landing only 0.27 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 53% clip. Holloway's definitely a boxer first, but it's worth mentioning that he's a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

Bottom Line

Personally, this is my favorite fight on the entire card. It should be an absolute war, and the oddsmakers set a total of 4.5 rounds, so settle in for a 25-minute bloodbath. As for the moneyline odds, Justin Gaethje is a -162 favorite, while Holloway comes back at +136 to get his hand raised. 

The BMF strap will officially be on the line Saturday night, and Gaethje currently holds the title after taking down Poirier last July. This is definitely a toss-up, but with a +136 payout on Holloway, I'm going to take a flier on the 32-year-old to edge out Gaethje. 

The more I think about it, this fight will likely go the distance. Holloway has only been finished once in his 32-fight career, and it came by submission. That's an aspect of Gaethje's game that's simply non-existent, where he's literally averaging 0.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes. 

If this ends up being a stand-up boxing match, which it likely will be, I have to give the edge to Holloway. He has the silkiest hands in the promotion, and he'll be throwing at Gaethje, who's absorbing an insane 7.50 significant strikes per minute. In comparison, Holloway's only taking 4.75 strikes per minute. I think the likeliest outcome is another high-volume masterclass from the quicker, younger and more elusive Holloway. Let's take a shot with the underdog. 

Bet: Max Holloway Moneyline (+136)

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