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UFC 300 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan (2024)

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The UFC is back with the most stacked card ever for UFC 300. The early prelims are fights that could headline any fight night at the Apex. Do not miss a second of this action-packed event that will surely be one of the most anticipated and watched events this year.

In the co-main event, Zhang Weili will fight Yan Xiaonan for the Women's Strawweight Title. It's the champ taking on one of her country-mates for the strap, so let's preview the fight.

UFC 300: Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Zhang Weili (-485)

Weili enters this bout on a three-fight winning streak. She is no stranger to title fights, having been in six in her previous seven appearances. Her two losses came back-to-back to Rose Namajunas in 2021. More recently, however, she has beaten Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Carla Esparza to regain her title and Amanda Lemos in her first defense.

Weili is a grapple-heavy fighter that relies on strength and timing to secure takedowns. She averages 2.29 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with 42% accuracy. Weili has defended 66% of takedowns in the UFC but is not afraid of grappling exchanges because of her scrambling ability. She lands 5.94 significant strikes while absorbing 3.44 significant strikes per minute. Weili has improved immensely since her 2021 losses to Namajunas, and it showed in her last fight when she outlanded Lemos 163 to 24 and secured six takedowns.

Yan Xiaonan (+370)

The challenger, Xiaonan, has won two consecutive fights to earn a title shot. She beat Mackenzie Dern via decision and Jessica Andrade by knockout. She is 3-2 in her last five bouts, with losses to Marina Rodriguez and former champion Carla Esparza. She is 8-2 overall in the promotion since 2017.

Xiaonan is primarily a striker who is intimidating on the feet. She has serious power for the division and polished technique to stand with anyone. Her weakness is on the ground. She lands .86 takedowns per 15 minutes and only defends 70% of takedowns. Xiaonan lands 5.55 significant strikes, absorbs 3.56 significant strikes per minute and defends 61% of opponents' strikes. She can win striking exchanges against Zhang, but how many will she have?

Prediction

Weili is the heavy favorite in this fight for a reason. She has superior grappling and vicious ground-and-pound techniques. Xiaonan has been susceptible to takedowns, which should give Weili a path to victory. Dern, who has world-class jiu-jitsu and average wrestling, landed two takedowns on Xiaonan during their five-round fight but could not keep her down. Weili will be able to keep her from getting back to her feet. She controlled Lemos for over 16 minutes over five rounds in their last fight.

Xiaonan’s best chance to win this fight is with a knee up the middle when Weili shoots a takedown or a big punch that puts her lights out. If she cannot produce a big moment, she will be taken down and held there. Weili is very active on the ground when getting her opponents there. She landed 296 total strikes in her last fight against Lemos compared to 29 landed on her. Zhang smothers her opponents and should do the same to Xiaonan.

The best way to attack this fight is with Weili by submission or as a parlay piece. The style of fight expected is conducive to submissions, and this line does not reflect that. Xiaonan has not been submitted since 2010 but will be in several precarious positions in this fight.

Bet: Zhang Weili To Win by Submission (+500)

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