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UFC 300 Preliminary Card Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)

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The UFC is back with the most stacked card ever for UFC 300! The early preliminaries are fights that could headline any fight night at the Apex. Do not miss a second of this action-packed event that will surely be one of the most anticipated and watched events this year. The main event is the Light Heavyweight Title fight between Jamahal Hill and Alex Pereira.

The prelims will air on ESPN at 8 p.m. EDT, and below is an analysis and picks from a couple of preliminary fights.

UFC 300 Preliminary Card Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

#2 Jiri Prochazka (-105) vs. #5 Aleksandar Rakic (-115)

The featured prelim of the night is a light heavyweight matchup between two top-five contenders. Aleksandar Rakic has been away since 2022 when he tore his ACL in a TKO loss to Jan Blachowicz. He is 6-2 in the UFC with losses to Blachowicz and Volkan Oezdemir.

Jiri Prochazka was the champion of this division in 2022 after he beat Glover Teixeira at UFC 275. He then had to vacate his belt following a gruesome shoulder injury that occurred before UFC 282, where he was supposed to defend his title in a rematch with Teixeira. Prochazka returned to action in November 2023 to face Alex Pereira for the title after Jamahal Hill relinquished the belt because of an Achilles injury. He lost to Pereira via knockout in the second round and Prochazka looked like a shell of what he used to be before the shoulder injury.

This fight will likely play out on their feet, which gives Rakic the edge. Rakic is a technical striker who is calculated and will be the one to change levels. He can control where the fight occurs, which will be a big advantage. Rakic lands 4.01 significant strikes and absorbs 2.30 significant strikes per minute. Prochazka gets hit too much while striking; he lands 5.31 significant strikes and absorbs 5.17 significant strikes per minute. Rakic will be able to find his chin and will be able to fend off any takedowns. He is the side to play, up to -135.

Bet: Aleksandar Rakic (-115)

#8 Calvin Kattar (+145) vs. #2 (Bantamweight) Aljamain Sterling (-175)

The featherweight matchup between Calvin Kattar and Aljamain Sterling is among the more interesting ones on the card. Sterling is moving up a weight class after losing his bantamweight title to Sean O'Malley. He was big for that weight class and should have no trouble at featherweight. Sterling has one of the best physiques in the game and stays in phenomenal shape; he would cut over 30 pounds to make the 135-pound limit at bantamweight, so the smaller weight cut should help his stamina.

Calvin Kattar has lost two consecutive fights against Josh Emmett and Arnold Allen. He got knocked out for the first time in his last fight against Allen, albeit due to a knee injury in the first round. Kattar has taken some time since that fight in October 2022 to recover from his knee injury, which should help him moving forward.

Kattar has only been taken down twice in his UFC career, which shows off his 91% takedown defense. Sterling will be hunting for takedowns throughout the fight and should land a few. Kattar's takedown defense has gotten inflated because he has not faced a grappler of Sterling's ability. Sterling is a tremendous grappler and has proven his wrestling chops against Henry Cejudo and Petr Yan. Kattar is the better boxer of the two and Sterling was just knocked out by a longer, better striker in O'Malley, but the weight cut had something to do with that. Sterling's chin will be better at this weight, and he will not crumple to a punch from Kattar.

The path to victory for Sterling is to exploit Kattar's high guard and boxing style by kicking his calf and wearing him down. Sterling trains with Merab Dvalishvili, who notoriously weaponizes his cardio and Sterling should put his cardio and pace on display in this fight.

Bet: Aljamain Sterling (-175)

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