UFC 301 Odds & Picks: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg (2024)
After a historic UFC 300 in Las Vegas, the promotion packs its bags and heads to Rio de Janeiro for an epic UFC 301 event. All roads lead to a championship bout in the Flyweight Division as Alexandre Pantoja (C) defends his belt against Steve Erceg (#10).
Let's dive into each fighter's recent form and statistics and wrap it up with my favorite belt for the main event.
UFC 301 Betting Guide: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Alexandre Pantoja (27-5-0)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-W
After the promotion had enough of the Brandon Moreno-Deveison Figuedo saga, Alexandre Pantoja finally got a chance to fight for the Flyweight strap. The Brazilian took advantage of the championship opportunity, besting Moreno in a five-round split-decision war. Pantoja has since defended his belt once, notching another decision victory (unanimous) against Brandon Royval. These two wins are a part of a five-fight win streak, where Pantoja has taken care of Manel Kape (U-DEC), Royval for a first time (SUB - Rear Naked Choke) and Alex Perez (SUB - Neck Crank).
The 34-year-old has put his grappling at the forefront in his last two fights, racking up 14 takedowns in the two championship bouts. He's up to 2.20 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, which comes at a 48% success rate. “The Cannibal†also defends 67% of opposing takedown attempts. In terms of striking, Pantoja is landing 4.32 significant strikes per minute while absorbing a modest 3.90 strikes per minute.
Betting Profile: Steve Erceg (12-1-0)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-W
Steve Erceg has burst onto the UFC scene, and he's getting a title shot in just his fourth fight in the promotion. The 28-year-old is riding a 10-fight winning streak, including prior fights from Eternal MMA (six straight wins) and Hex Fight Series (one win). As for his UFC history, the Australian has cruised to victories against David Dvorak (U-DEC), Alessandro Costa (U-DEC) and Matt Schnell (KO - Punch), most recently. The win over Schnell was a second-round knockout, where Erceg out-struck his opponent 34 to 22.
Statistically, “Astro Boy†is landing 4.57 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 3.64 strikes per minute. His opponents land just 45% of their strikes, which is lower than Pantoja's, who’s landing an even 50% of his significant strikes. The Perth, Australia native is relatively active in terms of wrestling, where he's landing 1.69 takedowns per 15 minutes (30% success rate). He's also defending 77% of opposing takedown attempts.
Bottom Line
The hype for this card isn't nearly as big as UFC 300, but sometimes, the events that fly under the radar end up being insanely entertaining. I think this main event has the opportunity to be a legendary brawl. The oddsmakers have the champion priced as a -185 moneyline favorite to retain his belt, while 10th-ranked Steve Erceg comes back at +154 to pull off the upset in Pantoja's backyard.
This is an extremely favorable setup for Pantoja, considering the fight will be in his home country. The Rio de Janeiro native will also face a 10th-ranked Erceg, who has just three UFC fights to his resumé.
While you can't take any opponent lightly, there's a clear edge in terms of competition faced, and “The Cannibal†is easily the more battle-tested fighter. Sure, Erceg's riding a 10-fight win streak, but those victories came against lower competition. Erceg may have a fruitful career in the UFC, but I just can't see the 28-year-old knocking off a veteran brawler in Pantoja.
Rather than lay the -185 juice, I'll opt to take Pantoja to win inside the distance. For those unfamiliar, this means any submission, TKO, KO or DQ will win us this bet. Basically, any method other than a decision win for Pantoja gets us back to the counter to cash our ticket. The Brazilian has amassed an impressive 27-5-0 record, and his distribution of wins is quite equal. He has eight knockouts, 10 submissions and nine decisions.
We will see some insane grappling exchanges in this one, and I think Pantoja will have the upper hand simply due to his experience against other world-class fighters. Whether he sticks Erceg with a submission or knocks him out with his sneakily powerful right hand, I expect Pantoja to make light work of the Australian.
Bet: Alexandre Pantoja To Win Inside the Distance (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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