UFC 301 Odds & Picks: Anthony Smith vs. Vitor Petrino (2024)
It might be impossible to top what happened at the last pay-per-view, but the show must continue. UFC 301 is in Rio de Janeiro and will feature a Flyweight title fight between the champion, Alexandre Pantoja, and the challenger, Steve Erceg.
The third fight on the main card is a matchup between a longtime UFC veteran and an up-and-coming Brazilian. Anthony Smith is the 10th-ranked light heavyweight fighter in the UFC and will face 15th-ranked Vitor Petrino. Smith is a fan favorite and never disappoints, and Petrino will want to put on a show for his home crowd.
UFC 301 Odds & Picks: Anthony Smith vs. Vitor Petrino
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Anthony Smith (+420)
The resumé of Anthony "Lionheart" Smith is long and could cover several articles. He is 37-19 overall and began fighting in Strikeforce, which the Zuffa (UFC's parent company) bought in 2011. He is 2-3 in his last five fights, with his latest loss coming at the hands of Khalil Rountree via KO in December. His two wins came against Ryan Spann, once via submission in round one in 2021, followed up with a split decision victory in August 2023.
Smith tends to eat punches to land punches, which is not a smart strategy, especially as you get older. He is 35 years old and lands 0.49 takedowns per 15 minutes with 26% accuracy. He lands 3.21 significant strikes and absorbs 4.47 significant strikes per minute.
Vitor Petrino (-650)
Petrino has only fought four times on a UFC card and once in Dana White's Contender Series. He is undefeated at 11-0 and most recently won a unanimous decision over Tyson Pedro. His prior victories were against Modestas Bukauskas, Marcin Prachnio and Anton Turkalj. He is making a quick turnaround after beating Pedro on March 2 but is young at 26, so it should not be a big concern.
He lands 2.74 significant strikes and absorbs 2.49 significant strikes per minute in his young UFC career. He has secured 3.86 takedowns per 15 minutes, with 68% accuracy. The most takedowns he landed in a fight were seven against Turkalj. Smith is a savvy veteran who still has some tricks up his sleeve. Still, can he compete with the young, hungry Brazilian on his home turf?
Prediction
Petrino has a serious grappling edge in this matchup. Smith has only defended 48% of takedowns in his UFC career and will likely wind up on his back multiple times throughout this fight. Smith has cornered many fighters and works as an analyst for the UFC, so he is undoubtedly intelligent. However, knowing what to do and doing it are two different things. Smith has shown that he cannot defend takedowns, and Petrino is a strong athletic grappler. These two are on opposite ends of their careers and will show in this fight.
Smith is a well-rounded fighter but is not dominant in any facet. His best traits are his durability and intelligence. Unfortunately, intelligence usually comes later in a fighter's career, when the durability tends to dwindle. That is why most fighters achieve success in their early-to-mid thirties. They have enough skill and intelligence to make smart moves in the octagon and can take a punch. Smith cannot take a punch like he used to, and Petrino likely finishes him via ground and pound.
Bet: Vitor Petrino To Win by KO/TKO/DQ (-650)
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