UFC 301 Odds & Picks: Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo (2024)
It might be impossible to top what happened at the last pay-per-view, but the show must continue! UFC 301 is in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and will feature a Flyweight title fight between the champion, Alexandre Pantoja, and the challenger, Steve Erceg.
The co-main event features the return of a MMA legend. Jose Aldo is coming out of retirement to face Jonathan Martinez. Aldo is unranked, and Martinez is the 12th-ranked fighter in the Bantamweight division. The Brazilian crowd will be as loud as ever when Aldo returns, so do not miss it.
UFC 301: Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jonathan Martinez (-148)
Jonathan Martinez is on a six-fight win streak and is 10-3 since entering the promotion. His most recent fight was a KO/TKO via kicks against Adrian Yanez in October. He beat Said Nurmagomedov, Cub Swanson, and Vince Morales in the three fights before that. He is on an impressive win streak in one of the best divisions in the promotion and now has a chance to make a name for himself against a legend in Brazil.
He lands 4.64 significant strikes and absorbs 3.76 significant strikes per minute while defending 58% of strikes. He averages 0.44 takedowns per 15 minutes and has defended 69% of takedowns in the UFC. His leg kicks are powerful and a fight-changer if landed early. The big question is, can he land them against another powerful kicker in Aldo?
Jose Aldo (+124)
Jose Aldo's last fight in the UFC was a decision loss to Merab Dvalishvili. He went on to box three times and went 2-0-1, with the draw coming against longtime UFC veteran Jeremy Stephens. Aldo has been training, but what level and kind of training has he been doing?
Aldo is 31-8 overall in MMA and was a champion for 1,848 days with seven successful title defenses at featherweight. He averages 0.49 takedowns per 15 minutes and has defended 91% of takedowns. He lands 3.57 significant strikes and absorbs 3.74 significant strikes per minute while defending 60% of strikes.
Prediction
The best comparison to what Aldo is doing is when Conor McGregor took a few years off to box Floyd Mayweather Jr. The first time McGregor got tested back in the octagon was against Dustin Poirier. Being inactive in MMA for over a year and a half, even with three boxing matches, is hard to overcome. It is more difficult when your opponent has all the confidence in the world on the back of a six-fight winning streak.
Aldo will have the full force of his Brazilian home crowd cheering him on, which could get to Martinez and diminish his confidence. The big question mark in this matchup is the leg kicks of Martinez. How will Aldo handle the powerful leg kicks that will surely come his way in the first round? When was the last time he got kicked in the calf? If it has been a while, he will not fare well in this fight, and this is likely the case if he has been primarily training in boxing.
Another thing to note is that this will be Aldo's last fight on his UFC contract, so he will be able to fight elsewhere after with no strings attached to the UFC. Other organizations have offered him large sums of money, and he could look at this fight as a means to an end to seize another opportunity.
Ultimately, this fight is close, and the oddsmakers have priced it as such. Martinez is peaking in his young career but he has not faced anyone at the level of Aldo, even at 37. Martinez should win, but it likely happens on the judges' scorecards.
Bet: Jonathan Martinez To Win (-148)
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