UFC 301 Odds & Picks: Longshot Sleeper Bets (2024)
It might be impossible to top what happened at the last pay-per-view, but the show must continue! UFC 301 is in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and will feature a Flyweight title fight between the champion, Alexandre Pantoja, and the challenger, Steve Erceg. The co-main event is between Jonathan Martinez and former champion Jose Aldo, who is coming out of retirement in front of a Brazilian crowd. The night should have tons of action, so here is a longshot bet that could make it even more fun!
UFC 301 Longshot Prop Bet (2024)
(Odds courtesy of BetRivers)
Anthony Smith (+440) vs. Vitor Petrino (-590)
I’ve already previewed this fight a bit on my author page on BettingPros, but this will be more in-depth. While the other article details the recent fights of each fighter and gives an overall preview, this article will delve more into the matchup and value of this specific prop bet.
Anthony Smith is known as a durable fighter. He once fought against Jon Jones for the Light Heavyweight Title and could have taken the easy way out and won via disqualification. He was getting used as a punching bag for much of the fight, and Jones landed an illegal knee while Smith was grounded. "Lionheart" continued fighting instead of receiving the belt, which he would not have earned. Smith has been in countless wars, but they have caught up to him.
Khalil Rountree rocked him with a huge uppercut in the third round. Smith wobbled and had no control of his legs as he fell and curled up into a ball, and the referee called the fight before Rountree could do any more damage. He has been knocked out twice in his last four fights, and Petrino will finish him this time.
Vitor Petrino is fighting in front of a home crowd in Brazil which will motivate him to put on a show, especially as a young fighter trying to make a name for himself. Anthony Smith is a legend, and knocking him out will earn respect from the fans and his peers. It will probably catch Dana White's attention as well.
Petrino is a powerful grappler, and Smith is prone to takedowns. Petrino will shoot early and either get him to the ground or keep trying, which will help Petrino in a few ways. If he gets him to the ground, Petrino will have the strength advantage and be able to overpower Smith, who is a great grappler in his own right but not as strong as Petrino. The other thing it will do is make Smith think about the takedown, which could lead to him dropping his hands to defend it. That could leave a window for Petrino to land over the top.
The odds for this bet on DraftKings Sportsbook is +300, so the value on this prop is tremendous. Some sportsbooks have it as low as +275, so this is a good prop and a conceivable scenario. Petrino is building a solid career as an undefeated light heavyweight, while Anthony Smith is on his way out and moving toward a career as an analyst.
Bet: Vitor Petrino To Win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+420)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: