UFC 301 Odds & Picks: Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria (2024)

After a historic UFC 300 in Las Vegas, the promotion packs its bags and heads to Rio de Janeiro for an epic UFC 301 event. All roads lead to a championship bout in the Flyweight division as Alexandre Pantoja (C) defends his belt against Steve Erceg (#10).

We have plenty of exciting fights on this card, including a main card tilt in the Middleweight division between Michel Pereira and Ihor Potieria.

Below, I'll break down the 185-pound fight and provide my favorite bet for this contest: Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria.

UFC 301: Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria Betting Guide

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Betting Profile: Michel Pereira (30-11-0, 2 NC)

Last Five Fights: W-W-W-W-W

Michel Pereira is looking to break into the top 15 in a stacked Middleweight division, but I'm not sure if beating another unranked fighter will be enough to move him into the rankings. However, the Brazilian has been on an incredible run since 2020, amassing a seven-fight win streak. That streak is active heading into Saturday's card, and the most recent victory came in submission fashion (Rear Naked Choke) against Michal Oleksiejczuk. This first-round win marked the second consecutive first-round finish, where he previously knocked out Andre Petroski (Punch) in October. 

The 30-year-old's statistics look fantastic. He's racking up 5.15 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 3.71 strikes per minute. As for his grappling, “The Demolidor” is landing 1.55 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 55% success rate. He's also defending an impressive 94% of opposing takedown attempts. It's worth noting that Pereira is a black belt in both Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Karate. 


Betting Profile: Ihor Potieria (20-5-0)

Last Five Fights: W-L-L-W-L

The 20-5-0 record of Ihor Potieria looks impressive, but the Ukrainian brawler has struggled since making the jump to the UFC, going just 3-3 since joining the promotion. The 27-year-old finally got back into the win column last time out, taking care of Robert Bryczek (U-DEC) in a 15-minute battle. Potieria out-struck his opponent 67 to 32, registering a knockdown in the winning effort. Previously, he dropped a pair of fights to Carlos Ulberg (KO - Punches) and Rodolfo Bellato (KO - Punches) more recently. 

Statistically, the European fighter is landing 5.19 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.01 strikes per minute. His wrestling approach is non-existent since he's landing 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 0% success rate. Defensively, the Duelist is defending 57% of opposing takedown attempts. 


Bottom Line

This should be an exciting main card fight on Saturday night, but the oddsmakers aren't giving Ihor Potieria much of a chance to win. He's priced at +440 on the moneyline, while Michel Pereira comes back at -600 to get his hand raised. 

I have to go with the chalky outcome here and lock in Pereira to win by knockout (or TKO/DQ). As noted, Potieria is just 3-3 since coming over to the UFC, and all three of those defeats have come via knockout.

Meanwhile, “The Demolidor” is on fire, riding a seven-fight win streak. Just one of those wins has come by knockout, but 11 of the Brazilian's 30 professional wins are by KO/TKO. There's a slim chance Pereira attacks Potieria's inefficient takedown defense (57%), but I think it's more likely he stands with him and simply pummels him. You could actually argue that Potieria is less efficient in his strike defense, where he's absorbing an inflated 5.01 significant strikes per minute. With Pereira’s heavy hands, I think he'll put the Ukrainian to sleep in front of his home crowd in Rio de Janeiro. 

Bet: Michel Pereira To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (-150)


Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: