UFC 301 Odds & Picks: Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho (2024)
It might be impossible to top what happened at the last pay-per-view, but the show must continue. UFC 301 is in Rio de Janeiro and will feature a Flyweight title fight between the champion, Alexandre Pantoja, and the challenger, Steve Erceg.
Opening the main card are a couple of middleweights looking to break into the top 10 of the rankings. 13th-ranked Paul Craig will take on 14th-ranked Caio Borralho in what is sure to be an action-filled fight. Let's preview the matchup between the two middleweight contenders.
UFC 301 Odds & Picks: Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho
(Odds courtesy of BetRivers Sportsbook)
Paul Craig (+420)
Craig is about to make his 17th walk into the octagon, but only his third at middleweight. He is 17-7-1 overall and 1-1 at this weight class. Craig last faced Brendan Allen, who beat him via rear naked choke in the third round of a five-round fight. Before that, he won over Andre Muniz via KO/TKO in the second round in July 2023. Craig has fought some legends of the sport and has beaten several high-level fighters (Jamahal Hill, Magomed Ankalaev and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua).
The 36-year-old is primarily a submission artist but is dangerous from any position. He is 9-8 in the promotion, with all finishes (six submissions, three knockouts). Craig lands 2.42 significant strikes while absorbing 2.86 significant strikes per minute. He lands 1.76 takedowns per 15 minutes but only has 22% accuracy. He is quick to pull guard with his 37% takedown defense.
Caio Borralho (-590)
Borralho is undefeated in the UFC, with two wins in Dana White's Contender Series and five in the promotion. He is 15-1 overall, with his only loss at the hands of Jailton Almeida, the seventh-ranked UFC heavyweight. Borralho's most recent fight was a unanimous decision victory over Abus Magomedov. He beat Michal Oleksiejczuk via submission before that and earned a performance bonus.
He is a technical, southpaw fighter with great defense. He lands 2.73 significant strikes and absorbs 1.98 significant strikes per minute while defending 60% of strikes. He lands 2.16 takedowns per 15 minutes at 63% and defends 57% of takedowns. Will he be able to thwart the submission threats of Craig en route to another decision, or will he play with fire and get burnt?
Prediction
This fight is likely going to end inside the distance. Paul Craig is notorious for putting himself in dangerous situations hunting submissions. He usually gets the submission or gets knocked out/submitted by his opponent. Borralho will be the better striker and athlete. Craig is tough but has deficiencies in his striking. He is slow and loopy with his punches but gets better with each fight. Borralho is a stylistic nightmare for Craig.
The Brazilian is a great grappler with high-tier Brazilian jiu-jitsu that could counter Craig's. He is also a much better wrestler, and Craig will have trouble getting him to the ground. He is tricky off his back, but Craig will not present anything Borralho has not seen.
The longer this fight goes, the more desperate Craig will be looking for submission attempts, which will likely get him hurt. The question is: Does Borralho have the finishing ability? He should be able to finish him, but he has proven that he is willing to play it safe and let the judges give him a unanimous decision, which is +225. The safer play is just via decision because it will be up to the judges, which adds a lot of variance.
Bet: Caio Borralho To Win by Decision (+215)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: