UFC 301 Pantoja vs. Erceg: Parlay Odds & Picks (2024)
It might be impossible to top what happened at the last pay-per-view, but the show must continue. UFC 301 is in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. It will feature a Flyweight title fight between the champion, Alexandre Pantoja, and the challenger, Steve Erceg. The co-main event features the return of an MMA legend. Jose Aldo is coming out of retirement to face Jonathan Martinez.
The card features several heavily favored fighters, but we are here to help you navigate them and select a few to put in a parlay to make the night worth it!
UFC 301 Pantoja vs. Erceg: Parlay Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook | 2024 total: +2.71 units
Leg 1: Mauricio Ruffy (-225)
Mauricio Ruffy is a Dana White's Contender Series alum, and this is his debut under the UFC banner. He is fighting Jamie Mullarkey, who has had an up-and-down tenure with the UFC. This fight will be in the lightweight division, despite Ruffy fighting at welterweight on DWCS. He has fought at lightweight before, so there should be no problem making the weight cut, but it is something to keep an eye on to see how drained he looks on the scales.
Ruffy is 9-1 in his career, with his lone loss coming against Manoel Sousa (11-0) in 2019. Mullarkey is 17-7 overall and 5-5 in the UFC. His most recent fight was a first-round knockout loss to Nasrat Haqparast in December.
Mullarkey's chin is questionable at best. He has been knocked out five times in his career, including three times in the UFC. Two of them came in 2023, which is cause for concern against Ruffy, who has finished all nine of his victories via knockout. Ruffy is a smooth striker who utilizes a lot of feints. Mullarkey does not use a lot of head movement and could have trouble against Ruffy's style, especially after they gauge each other's movements.
Leg 2: Jack Shore (+150)
Jack Shore and Joanderson Brito are very similar fighters, but striking defense is an area that differs. Brito only defends 47% of significant strikes, while Shore defends 57%. Shore lands a ratio of 3.84 to 2.20 significant strikes landed and absorbed per minute, while Brito's ratio is 3.32 to 2.62. They both average about 3.40 takedowns landed per minute, but Shore's takedown defense is better at 79% compared to 50%.
Shore was a highly touted prospect entering the UFC, and he rattled off five consecutive victories until he lost via submission to Ricky Simon in 2022. He is still a prospect on the rise and should not be this wide of an underdog. His jab will be important in this fight, especially because Brito is not as defensive when striking. He has also been sitting out for over a year due to a hand injury but is getting better and stronger. Brito will test that strength, as he is a strong fighter, but his aggressiveness could be a problem against the technical Shore.
Leg 3: Vitor Petrino (-575)
I previewed this fight here and gave a longshot prop from this fight here. It is safe to say that Petrino is my favorite fighter to target on the card. Look at those for the details on their recent fights and the method of victory prop that is a good value. We will focus on the money line for this article, and hopefully, we have a -575 favorite to finish off the parlay when the main card rolls around.
Petrino and Smith are on the opposite ends of their careers. Smith is an analyst for the UFC and has been in several corners over the past few years. His fight IQ is undeniable, but his chin is very questionable at this point in his career. Petrino is a nightmare matchup for "Lionheart" because he is also a calculated fighter, which he showed in his last fight against Tyson Pedro. He took Pedro down three times and controlled him on the ground for over five minutes because Pedro was a dangerous striker. The game plan for Smith will not be the same, but he will have the best plan for the easiest path to victory: testing Smith's chin.
Parlay Odds: +323
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: