UFC 301 Preliminary Card Odds & Picks (2024)

by Trenton Pruitt |
May 03, 2024

The UFC packs its bags and heads south this weekend for a highly-anticipated UFC 301 event in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This card is stacked from top to bottom, including nine preliminary fights. Below I'll dive into a few of these bouts from a betting perspective and let you know where I'm laying my money on the canvas this weekend.

UFC 301 Preliminary Card Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Jack Shore (+154) vs. Joanderson Brito (-185)

The prelims wrap up with an under-the-radar banger in the Featherweight division as Jack Shore squares off against Joanderson Brito. Shore is off to a 17-1-0 start in his MMA career while Brito is currently 16-3-1.

I'm not sure who will win this contest, but I believe the victor will get his hand raised courtesy of a submission win. Both men are crafty on the ground, each racking up at least eight submission wins. Shore, a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, has nine tap-out wins, while Brito has seen eight of his 16 wins come via submission.

Furthermore, we should see this fight take place on the canvas considering each brawler is averaging more than 3.40 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Brito, the Brazilian fighter, owns a 50% takedown defense rate, so look for Shore to use this inefficiency to his advantage. With two bonafide finishers, I think someone gets stuck with a submission.

Bet: Method of Victory: Submission (+175)

Jean Silva (-122) vs. William Gomis (+102)

The prelims get underway with another Featherweight tilt, this one between Jean Silva and William Gomis. The oddsmakers are essentially suggesting to flip a coin, as Silva's a slim -122 Moneyline favorite, while Gomis is +102 to win the bout.

I agree with the sportsbooks that this fight is pretty close in terms of picking a winner. With that said, I believe there's a case to be made for the underdog, so I'll ride with the Frenchman on the Moneyline in this one. Gomis enters this clash riding an 11-fight win streak, which includes capturing victories in his first three UFC bouts.

Statistically, two metrics stand out with Gomis. First, his strike defense, where his opponents have landed just 25% of their strike attempts. For those unfamiliar, this number is typically in the upper 40s. Then, there's his takedown defense, which is 81% entering the bout. He has racked up seven knockouts and a submission over his 13-2-0 career, so he packs some power in his hands. Let's take a shot with the lengthy Parisian to win this tilt.

Bet: William Gomis Moneyline (+102)

Joaquim Silva (+154) vs. Drakkar Klose (-185)

Saturday's early prelims will be headlined with a bout in the Lightweight division as Joaquim Silva (13-5-0), a Brazilian, takes on Drakkar Klose (14-2-1), an American. Klose is a decently-sized favorite, currently priced at -185 to get his hand raised. Silva comes back at +154 to win his second straight fight.

These are two veteran brawlers but it appears Klose is the more polished fighter at this stage of his career. The American has rattled off six wins in his last trips to the Octagon, which includes a stretch of three straight wins. Meanwhile, Silva has dropped three of his last five fights.

All three of Silva's recent defeats have come via knockout, so I think it's fair to question the 35-year-old's jaw. Also, absorbing an inflated 4.51 significant strikes per minute doesn't help. With that said, I'll play the "Method of Victory Double Chance" on Klose, to say he wins this fight by knockout or decision. It's a chalkier option, but it helps eliminate a little of the -185 juice that comes with the Moneyline. On that note, Klose has never won via submission, with all 14 of his wins coming via decision (8) or knockout (6). Let's take the hotter fighter to win this one. Give me Klose by knockout or points.

Bet: Drakkar Klose To Win By KO/TKO/DQ or Decision (-175)

More UFC 301 Odds & Picks

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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