UFC 301 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)
The UFC packs its bags and heads south this weekend for a highly-anticipated UFC 301 event in Rio de Janeiro. There's no shortage of ways to get in on the action, including heading to the prop market.
Here are my three favorite UFC 301 prop bets.
UFC 301 Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
Let’s dive into our top UFC 301 Prop Bets ahead of this weekend’s event.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Alexandre Pantoja (-185) vs. Steve Erceg (+154)
Saturday night's action concludes with a main event in the Flyweight division as Alexandre Pantoja (C) looks to retain his belt against Steve Erceg (#10). The champ's a -185 moneyline favorite, while the Australian comes back at +154 to secure Flyweight gold.
There's no denying that Erceg's MMA career is on an upward trajectory as he enters this contest riding a 10-fight win streak. But are we sure that he's worthy of even stepping onto the same canvas as Pantoja? The current champion is extremely battle-tested, squaring off against world-class competition bi-annually. He's fought nearly every notable brawler in this jam-packed division, including Deiveson Figueiredo, Askar Askarov, Brandon Royval (x2) and Brandon Moreno.
Both men are on excellent runs right now, but I think there's a chance that Pantoja absolutely destroys Erceg. I'll say that the contest doesn't see a fourth round.
Bet: Fight To Not Start Round No. 4 (+140)
Jonathan Martinez (-148) vs. Jose Aldo (+124)
It's always a treat when Jose Aldo makes the walk. The former champion finds himself as a slight underdog, coming in at +124 to get back into the win column. As for Jonathan Martinez, the 12th-ranked contender in the Bantamweight division, he's priced at -148 to win a seventh straight bout.
This co-main event is a standard 15-minute fight, and I expect the bout to go to the judges' scorecards. The "Fight To Go the Distance" prop is priced at: Yes: -225 and No: +165.
So, to knock off a lot of that juice, I'll say that whoever wins this fight does it by unanimous decision (Yes: -115, No: -115). First off, I think the fight will last the full 15 minutes. Aldo has had six of his last seven fights go to distance, which includes four straight. As for Martinez, four of his last six fights have gone the distance, each ending in a unanimous decision.
Both men have incredible takedown defense, with Aldo sitting at 91% and Martinez at 69%. I include that metric because I expect the fight to stay vertical, which should favor a longer fight. Similar to the takedown defense metric, both fighters are elusive regarding strike defense. The American's opponents land just 42% of their strikes, while the Brazilian's competitors land only 40% of their strikes! Perhaps that's why Aldo's career has been so lengthy: No one can hit him. Look for this fight to go the distance and for the winner to do it unanimously.
Bet: Fight To Be Won by Unanimous Decision (-115)
Anthony Smith (+425) vs. Vitor Petrino (-575)
Just before the co-main event, we have a thrilling Light Heavyweight clash between Anthony Smith (#10) and Vitor Petrino (#15). The Brazilian is a massive -575 moneyline favorite, while “Lionheart†comes back at +425 to get his hand raised.
I will sprinkle on a longshot prop to start the action on Saturday night. Vitor Petrino to finish this fight in the third round pays out at +450. It can come via any method, whether that be knockout, submission, or disqualification.
Personally, I'm a “Lionheart fan,†but the 35-year-old's jaw has fallen into question recently. He has amassed a 37-19 record over his professional career, but 11 of those defeats have come by knockout (four by submission). I think he'll have the veteran presence and heart to last into the third round, but the undefeated Petrino (11-0-0) should get to him eventually. It's worth a shot to take Petrino with a late finish, especially with this massive payout. The Brazilian has seven professional knockouts and one submission, so he's a bonafide finisher.
Bet: Vitor Petrino To Win in Round No. 3 (+450)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: