UFC 303 Odds & Picks: Alex Pereira vs. Jiří Procházka (2024)
The UFC 303 card is finally cemented, and it’s actually shaping up to be a fantastic card from top to bottom. All roads lead to a Light Heavyweight title fight, as Jiřà Procházka (#1) seeks revenge on Alex Pereira (C) in the main event. Below, I’ll dive into each fighter’s recent form, break down their statistics, and wrap up the article with my favorite bet for the tilt.
UFC 303: Alex Pereira vs. Jiřà Procházka Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Alex Pereira (10-2-0)
Last Five Fights: W-W-W-L-W
Alex “Poatan†Pereira, the champion of the Light Heavyweight division, will make the walk for the second time in roughly two months on Saturday. He made quick work of Jamahal Hill (KO/TKO – Punch) back in April, successfully defending his Light Heavyweight title for the first time. The Brazilian is a perfect 3-0 since making the jump from Middleweight, and he’s taken care of some big-time competitors in Jan Blachowicz (S-DEC), Jiřà Procházka (KO/TKO – Elbows), and the aforementioned Hill, most recently.
The champ is a black belt in both kickboxing and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Pereira’s grappling is very sound, and he’s landing 100% of his takedowns while defending 70% of opposing attempts. However, Poatan is landing only 0.18 takedowns per 15 minutes, so it’s evident he prefers to keep his fights vertical. In terms of striking, Pereira is landing 5.10 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 3.65 strikes per minute.
Betting Profile: Jiřà Procházka (30-4-1)
Last Five Fights: W-L-W-W-W
The defeat by Alex Pereira back in November 2023 was the first that Jiřà Procházka suffered since December 2015 in a different promotion. The Czech native bounced back following the championship loss, knocking out Aleksander Rakic (Punches) on the same April night that Pereira decimated Hill. Procházka amassed 69 strikes against Rakic, and he ultimately put him down roughly halfway through the second round.
Procházka is a high-volume striker, landing 5.75 significant strikes per minute at a 56% clip; he’s absorbing 5.43 strikes per minute. As for his wrestling, the 31-year-old is landing 0.79 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 60% success rate, as well as fending off 68% of opposing attempts. It’s worth mentioning that Procházka has racked up 30 MMA victories in his career, and 29 of them have ended before the final horn (26 KO, 3 SUB).
Bottom Line
The oddsmakers are expecting a very close fight on Saturday night, with Alex Pereira coming in as a slim -142 moneyline favorite. Jiřà Procházka comes back at +120 to reclaim the Light Heavyweight strap. As a side note, all five main card fights have the favorites priced at -155 or shorter. It’s setting up to be a great night on the canvas.
This is going to be an absolute war between two guys who rarely lose when stepping into the cage. That being said, I still give the edge to Pereira in this matchup. We saw early in the first fight that Pereira was able to keep the distance by utilizing his leg kicks. All of the power that Procházka possesses means nothing if he’s unable to get in close and land strikes on the champ. Look for this to be a recurring theme on Saturday night, since it’s a clear path to victory for Pereira.
Additionally, if this fight makes it to the judges’ scorecards, simply racking up significant strikes via the kickboxing style will benefit Pereira. His biggest question mark is his wrestling defense, but Procházka’s not much of a wrestler, averaging only 0.79 takedowns per 15 minutes. We should see this bout stay upright, which I believe benefits the Brazilian. Let’s back Pereira to retain his title.
Bet: Alex Pereira Moneyline (-142)