UFC 303 Odds & Picks: Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze (2024)
Despite all of the turnover on the UFC 303 card, this event is shaping up to be pretty electric. One of the main card bouts comes in the Light Heavyweight division as Anthony Smith (#10) takes on Roman Dolidze. Let’s check out each fighter’s recent form, dive into their statistics, and wrap up the piece with my favorite bet for the tilt.
UFC 303: Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze Betting Guide
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Anthony Smith (38-19-0)
Last Five Fights: W-L-W-L-L
Anthony Smith makes the walk for the second time in just under two months, and he’s looking to build on a submission win via Guillotine Choke over Vitor Petrino on May 4th. It was a much-needed victory for Lionheart, as he had dropped three of his previous four fights; the lone win in that stretch was a split-decision victory over Ryan Spann. Smith followed that up with a knockout loss (Punch) at the hands of Khalil Roundtree Jr., who out-struck Smith 53-46 while registering a knockdown.
Statistically, the American is landing 3.23 significant strikes per minute while absorbing an inflated 4.47 strikes. As for his grappling, he’s not too active, averaging only 0.49 takedowns per 15 minutes, a 26% success rate. Defensively, Smith is fending off 49% of opposing takedown attempts. The 35-year-old Smith is also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
Betting Profile: Roman Dolidze (12-3-0)
Last Five Fights: L-L-W-W-W
It has been a rough stretch for Roman Dolidze, who enters Saturday night’s action riding a two-fight losing streak. These two defeats have both gone to the judges’ scorecards, first to Marvin Vettori (U-DEC) and more recently to Nassourdine Imavov (M-DEC) in February 2024. The Georgian was out-struck heavily in both contests, losing the striking battle 106-71 to Vettori and 112-34 to Imavov. Prior to the losses, Dolidze had racked up four straight victories.
Dolidze’s background and strength is definitely his grappling. He’s landing 1.30 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 40% success rate. The 35-year-old is also attempting 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes. However, he’s defending only 33% of opposing takedown attempts. In terms of striking, Dolidze is dishing out just 2.62 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.36 strikes per minute.
Bottom Line
This should be a fantastic main card fight and the oddsmakers agree, pricing Roman Dolidze as a short -142 moneyline favorite. The market sees Anthony Smith as a +120 underdog to secure his second straight victory.
I’ll back Anthony Smith as a short underdog on Saturday night. The American may not be a top-five fighter in the division anymore, but he’s still a very polished brawler. He’s staying active, and I believe his skillset sets him up nicely for him to notch a second straight win.
For starters, I have to emphasize that Dolidze has been out-struck in his last three fights. If this fight goes the full 15 minutes, I think Smith will accumulate enough strikes to get his hand raised. Dolidze’s low 2.62 significant strikes per minute should be worrisome if the fight drags on.
Stylistically, Smith is a very experienced BJJ black belt, and if this fight goes to the ground, he should manage to fend off any submission attempts from his opponent. Smith hasn’t been submitted since 2013, so it’s safe to say he’s sharp in this area of the fight game.
Dolidze has failed to perform when fighting up the rankings, and I think the 10th-ranked Smith poses a big problem for him. I’ll ride with Smith and this plus-money payout.
Bet: Anthony Smith Moneyline (+120)