UFC 303 Odds & Picks: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes (2024)
UFC 303 may have lost its biggest fight after Conor McGregor (broken toe) pulled out of his match against Michael Chandler, but it is still a stellar card. It is star-studded from top-to-bottom and features several veterans that never fail to entertain the fans. The main event between Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka is the best possible fight to replace the lost one, so it should be a great night of action.
Diego Lopes has burst onto the scene and become a fan-favorite in a short time. He is getting a tall test against Brian Ortega in the co-main event, and there is no doubt this will be an exciting fight. The T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas should be at full attention when these two walk into the cage.
UFC 303: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Brian Ortega (+120)
Brian “T-City†Ortega is 16-3 (1 NC) as a professional, but 2-3 in his last five. However, he was fighting the best of the best, with his three losses coming against Yair Rodriguez, Alexander Volkanosvki, and Max Holloway. His latest fight was a redemption victory over Yair Rodriguez via arm triangle.
“T-City†is a submission specialist, but he has looked much better at striking in his latest fights. He is 33 and as tough as anyone in the division, constantly displaying a top-tier chin. He lands 4.07 significant strikes and absorbs 6.54 significant strikes per minute. Ortega lands 1.17 takedowns and averages 1.2 submissions attempted per 15 minutes.
Diego Lopes (-142)
Diego Lopes is 24-6 in his career and 3-2 in the UFC. He has won three consecutive bouts, beating Sodiq Yusuff, Pat Sabatini, and Gavin Tucker. His latest victory was a first-round knockout over Yusuff, which propelled him into a fight against a former title challenger.
Lopes is another submission specialist who is not afraid to mix it up on his feet. He is 29 and on the fast path after winning his last three fights in the first round. Lopes lands 3.22 significant strikes, absorbs 4.73 significant strikes per minute, and only defends 37% of strikes. He has not landed a takedown in the UFC but he is a good grappler, averaging 5.0 submissions attempted per 15 minutes.
Prediction
The matchup on the ground is intriguing because Lopes has shown a weakness for being controlled when in the bottom position. He was controlled for just shy of eight minutes by Joanderson Brito in Dana White’s Contender Series, which is a loss that has aged well. He was controlled for eight and a half minutes in his debut fight against Movsar Evloev (18-0). There is no shame in losing to either of those opponents, but it shows a glaring hole in how Lopes fights.
Neither of these men has lost a fight via submission, and it could turn into a striking match, but it would not be surprising to see Ortega try and wrestle. Ortega has landed at least one takedown in his last five fights against much tougher opponents to take down. He is typically aggressive in search of submission when he gets his opponent to the mat, but there is a pathway to victory where he controls Lopes more. Ortega racked up over five minutes of control time against Rodriguez in his latest fight and could be more patient in this fight due to Lopes’ submission skills.
Bet: Brian Ortega (+120)