UFC 303 Odds & Picks: Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page (2024)
UFC 303 may have lost its biggest fight after Conor McGregor (broken toe) pulled out of his match against Michael Chandler, but it is still a stellar card. It is star-studded from top-to-bottom and features several veterans that never fail to entertain the fans. The main event between Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka is the best possible fight to replace the lost one, so it should be a great night of action.
The fight leading off the main card may have the most hype; Ian Machado Garry and Michael "Venom" Page have exchanged trash talk for weeks leading up to the fight and they may make it emotional on Saturday. Let's preview the fight, and I will provide my favorite pick for the matchup.
UFC 303: Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ian Machado Garry (-155)
Ian Machado Garry has been on an upward trajectory since entering the promotion. His last fight was a split decision win over a tough opponent, Geoff Neal, and he dismantled Neil Magny over 15 minutes prior. He is 14-0 as a professional and has been tested, unlike other undefeated fighters.
Garry is 26 and is a well-rounded fighter with an excellent skill set. He has a 74-inch reach and does a good job of using his length, especially with kicks. Garry lands 6.27 significant strikes and absorbs 3.49 significant strikes per minute. He lands 0.55 takedowns per 15 minutes, but he does not finish fights with submissions, using ground-and-pound instead.
Michael Page (+130)
Michael "Venom" Page is no stranger to the big stage, having been one of the biggest draws in Bellator for years. He won his first UFC fight against Kevin Holland via unanimous decision. Page is 22-2 overall, with his two losses coming against Logan Storley (2022) and Douglas Lima (2019).
Page is 37 and has a 79-inch reach. He fights from both stances and is a flashy fighter with numerous highlight knockouts. His statistics are limited because he only has one fight with the promotion, but he has a ratio of 3.14 to 1.60 significant strikes landed and absorbed per minute.
Prediction
Two key bits of information make this fight interesting. The first is the 11-year age gap; the younger fighter wins about 71% of the time, which makes sense, especially for this fight. Page relies on his speed and accuracy to finish opponents or at least touch them from the outside. The second piece of information is the five-inch reach advantage for Page. He could have an advantage on his feet, but is Garry willing to keep this fight standing?
Ian Machado Garry has not landed many takedowns (3) in his career, but he has not needed to. When he fought Neil Magny, he landed two takedowns and controlled for a minute in the first and third rounds. Page may be easier to take down and control than Magny, who is a big guy with an 80-inch reach. Garry should employ that same game plan and could find himself on top in the key moments of this fight.
Bet: Ian Machado Garry (-155)